MLB Must Bet Props: Parlays & Strikeouts | May 27, 2024

Happy Memorial Day, everyone! I hope you are enjoying your day off with friends and family. However, I feel your pain if you are like me and are currently at work.

Regardless, I have a couple baseball plays that can make this Memorial Day a memorable one.

Let’s have a Monday!

Top MLB Prop Bets for Monday’s Slate

Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.

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Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio

Just fade me. No matter how juicy the stats I spew out here, all my plays are cursed. 

Michael King Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-129)

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The Stank:

Starting the week off with a Strikeout prop that features the King, not Elvis Presley. 

My King, Mr. Michael King to go over 5.5 strikeouts against the subpar Marlins. However, Miami has yet to allow a starting pitcher to go over this number since Freddy Peralta on May 22. The Marlins have been pretty disciplined on the plate lately. However, they have eight hitters above the league strikeout rate percentage and zero hitters with elite ratings in this game.

During his recent start against AZ, Padres SP Michael King showcased the incredible potential and effectiveness of his Changeup.

Last night, during the game against the Dodgers, we witnessed the complete picture.

King’s CH generated:

➡️57% Whiff%
➡️Avg. 20 inch of Horizontal Break
➡️57% O-swing% & 50% Z-contact% https://t.co/wjM9JjF5BW pic.twitter.com/EzFYGfwROa

— Clark Fahrenthold (@CFahrenthold11) May 11, 2024

Let’s delve into the numbers. Michael King has been making hitters whiff all year long. Averaging an impressive six strikeouts per start this season. He’s gone over this number in his last three starts, a testament to his current form. Today, as he faces the Marlins, a team with a high strikeout rate, King’s chances of exceeding this number are even more promising. According to Batters-box.com, pitchers with an average hitter matchup strikeout percentage above 32%, like King, go over 5.5 strikeouts 65% of the time. Today, King’s average hitter matchup strikeout percentage is 32.33%

After finding those stats, I will happily be rooting for some fish to swing and miss.

2-Leg Hit Parlay: David Fry & Kyle Tucker (+112)

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The Stank:

Two things I am a sucker for french fries and hit parlays. I am all over David Fry and Kyle Tucker to at least get a hit today.

Today, both hitters sit atop Batters-Box.com’s ratings. Tucker is in the top five in both default and current season ratings. Meanwhile, Fry has the second-best default ratings while being in the top ten in the current season ratings.

Fry has been on another planet in his last ten games, batting .458, with 11 hits, 4 homers, 9 RBIs, and 10 runs scored. Today, he takes on your favorite hitter’s favorite pitcher, Austin Gomber, in Coors. Although, Gomber has been serviceable this season. The Rockies leftie still gives up a boatload of hard contact.

As for the current home run leader, Tucker goes head-to-head with Mariners starter Bryce Miller, who, at times, has been tough to touch this season. However, like Gomber, he still gives up a ton of hard contact.

18 homers for Kyle Tucker!!! He’s the quickest Astro player to 18 HRs to start a season. Did it in 53 games. pic.twitter.com/b0XBCPswSg

— Michael Schwab (@michaelschwab13) May 26, 2024

Both hitters today have been putting up eye-popping numbers against each of their opponents” pitches. For reference, Austin Gomber is 40% fastballs, and Fry is batting .444, with an OPSo of 1.111 and a wRC+ of 222 against fastballs this season. Most of Fry’s stats look like that against Gomber’s repertoire. Bryce Miller has a remarkable fastball. It is well above league average in terms of value. Kyle Tucker has been all over fastballs this season, batting .343, with an OPS of 1.324 with a wRC+ of 265.

Plus, money for two scorching hot bats. It is a tremendous value. Let’s get a little silly. 

Where to find more advanced analytics

When it comes to finding the top matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers, Batters-Box.com is my preferred website. While it may not provide all the answers, it serves as an excellent starting point for my daily baseball bets. In the previous season, I managed to increase my units by 98 by utilizing Batters-Box.com. Still skeptical? Feel free to verify my claims by checking out my Action profile @cmarchio.

In addition to FanGraphs, I rely on Statmuse and ESPN for additional statistics to determine whether a player is worth my investment or not.

Good luck this season you psychos!

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