MLB is notorious for juice, but finding value is not as difficult as it seems. There are plenty of good spots using hit parlays, RBIs, Runs and team scoring props. There are plenty of great spots on the board today to sprinkle. We’ll use trends and projections to find the best value bets on the board for tonight’s slate.
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MLB Picks
MLB Odds
Teoscar Hernandez 1+ Home Run (+400)
It’s not Dinger Tuesday, but that doesn’t mean the model doesn’t like a few guys to go yabo. Hernandez isn’t the only player with value to hit a dinger tonight, as Corey Seager is another good option. Hernandez is hitting the ball well lately, with four homers in his last four games. He’s got a good matchup against Michael Lorenzen tonight, who gives up a ton of hard hit balls. Hernandez is in the top 10% of MLB hitters for expected slugging and Hard Hit%. That bodes well against Lorenzen who will need to use all of his many pitches to keep Dodger hitters guessing. When sluggers are seeing the ball well, they are hard to get out. Hernandez is seeing and hitting the ball well, posing a tough challenge and with wind not expected to be a factor, Hernandez at +400 is 40 points of value (xLine is +360).
Jose Caballero 1+ Hit (-120)
Trends and projections are big when it comes to finding value on the board. A player who is in the bottom half of many batting stats but is hot, poses unique circumstances. Caballero is exactly that. He’s recorded a hit in seven of ten games. With a 69% chance to get a hit tonight, there is more than 100 points of value. His line of -120 is expected to be closer to -230. While there is juice at -120, it is not close to what the line should be.
Currently, Caballero’s ball-reading skills are excellent, resulting in successful plate appearances and yielding positive outcomes. His underlying statistics have largely improved compared to the 2023 season, indicating an anticipated enhancement in hitting performance. Given his current streak and the odds being below -170, there is significant value in considering this opportunity.
Tyler Locklear 1+ Hit (-105)
The newest addition to the Mariners lineup has made his mark with 3 hits in 4 games. With an implied win percentage of 62% according to Betalytics, there is 60 points of value on a line that should be closer to -170. Locklear doesn’t have enough of a sample size (12 AB) to use his numbers, but he’s having quality at-bats and is expected to be a quality bat. He’s hitting off speed pitches well in his first stint with the Mariners and given that he hasn’t demonstrated a lot of power yet, there is value on his line to hit a single at +190.
Garrett Crochet is determined to slow down the Mariners’ latest lineup addition, Locklear. Despite his impressive performance this season, Crochet, like other pitchers in the league, lacks much information on Locklear. While his fastball is his strongest pitch, Crochet has struggled to make an impact with his off-speed pitches. If he manages to outsmart Locklear with his fastball, he may have the upper hand. However, if Locklear can read the ball well and force Crochet to rely on his secondary pitches, the advantage will shift in his favor. This matchup is a battle between a hot pitcher and a hot batter, and only the best man will emerge victorious.
Crochet & Ryan 7+ Strikeouts (+102)
We have two pitchers with impressive strikeout records facing off against the top two teams in the MLB in terms of strikeout percentage. Given this scenario, we can confidently adjust their expected performance and potentially earn a profitable parlay. The Mariners and Athletics consistently have the highest strikeout rates among all baseball teams, both exceeding a 26% strikeout rate. This excessive strikeout tendency aligns perfectly with the strengths of our two pitchers, who possess exceptional abilities to strike out batters effortlessly.
Crochet is expected to strike out 7.52 batters, slightly surpassing his line of 7.5, while Ryan is projected to strike out 7.67, also slightly exceeding his line. This presents a favorable opportunity as both pitchers are performing well this season, despite some difficulties with breaking pitches. Additionally, Ryan has shown success against the A’s lineup in previous matchups. With the favorable circumstances of both pitchers’ performances and the lineups they are facing tonight, taking this bet offers good potential for increasing one’s bankroll.
