NFL 2024 Fantasy Draft Primer & How to Bet It: Running Backs

Since beginning my fantasy football research this season, I’ve been amazed with just how deep the running back position feels. This leads to interesting draft strategies like getting a top tier QB or TE early in the draft. Last week we discussed my three favorite running backs for NFL fantasy football in rounds 5-8. Each running back holds with sneaky value or are, in my mind, the clear cut RB to draft in those rounds. Today, it’s time to dig for gems all the way in round 8 and beyond.

This is an ongoing series to highlight players who REEK of value in NFL fantasy drafts. We aren’t talking about McCaffrey with the 1st overall pick, but instead we are going to be finding gems. Each article will feature a position within a range of draft rounds (we will always skip the 1st round). We will assume that these picks are for 12-team leagues with .5 PPR and will not be discussing in terms of Superflex. On top of that I’ll highlight a futures bet that corresponds with each player, all of whose odds can be found on BETONLINE.

Without wasting any more time, let’s begin with the top three value picks for NFL fantasy football 2024: the running backs. Get ready for the exciting mock draft season!

1. Running Back Value Round Nine: Zach Moss

Zach Moss could experience a significant increase in fantasy value now that he has a fresh start in Cincinnati.

Each time I engage in mock drafting, I am consistently amazed by the incredible value that can be found in the running back position starting from round 7 onwards. I have firmly made my decision to prioritize selecting my top two receivers initially, followed by either a quarterback or a tight end, before finally grabbing my second running back in each draft. Round 9 presents numerous potential choices that have captured my attention, but Zach Moss stands out as my primary target.

Moss has recently relocated to Cincinnati, where he holds the position of lead back for the Bengals’ dynamic offense. Although Moss has never ranked higher than 31st among running backs in PPR formats, he is entering this season on the heels of his most successful campaign in Indiana. In the previous year, he amassed 794 rushing yards and 192 receiving yards, contributing to a total of 7 touchdowns. It is worth noting that the Colts’ team was mainly guided by backup quarterback Minshew throughout a significant portion of the season.

Now in Cincinnati Moss has the opportunity to eat the same way Mixon has for several seasons. Opposing defenses will have to respect Burrow and Chase, which should allow more opportunities for Moss to find space and lanes. While not elite, Moss showed improvement in the receiving department last season. In a pass-happy offense like Cincinnati’s, he could contribute receptions and receiving yards, which will help boost his value in .5 PPR and full PPR leagues.

With Joe Burrow, Mixon has achieved an average of 12.33 touchdowns over three seasons. Should Moss continue his improvement, he will find himself in an advantageous position to achieve career-highs in touchdowns, receptions, and rushing yards within this potent offense. This makes him an excellent steal for NFL fantasy.

Zach Moss o5.5 rushing touchdowns for -112 on BetOnline:

Last season, Moss achieved his career-best by scoring 5 rushing touchdowns, despite being on a struggling Colts team in terms of scoring. However, with Burrow as the quarterback, Mixon managed to secure 9, 7, and 13 rushing touchdowns. Assuming Moss remains injury-free, he stands a strong chance of surpassing this record. Additionally, Moss faces minimal competition and has previously proven himself as a formidable force at the line of scrimmage.

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2. NFL Fantasy Round Ten Value Running Backs: Tyjae Spears

In Tennessee, Spears has the potential to form a highly effective duo.

Derick Henry, the Tennessee Titans’ most valuable weapon, won’t be joining them this season as he has now landed in Baltimore. Consequently, the Titans are aiming to transition away from their long-standing run-first offense. To fill the void, they have enlisted former Cowboy Tony Pollard as their lead back, while also investing considerable draft capital in Tyjae Spears during last year’s draft.

Having had the opportunity to learn from one of the most exceptional running backs of the last decade, Spears showcased his skills despite Henry shouldering most of the workload. He accumulated 453 rushing yards, 385 receiving yards, and scored 3 touchdowns. His elusive moves and ankle-breaking agility made him a slippery weapon alongside the powerful Henry. Now, Spears has the chance to step up and become a valuable asset in NFL fantasy as he takes over the backfield.

Although Pollard may limit Spears’ potential, there is a possibility that he could emerge as the primary running back. Pollard had a successful season with the highly efficient Dallas Cowboys offense. However, when analyzing his performance, it became evident that he benefited from playing behind one of the top offensive lines in the league.

This is a high potential move, relying on Spears to excel in all aspects of the game. Although his receiving yards may remain consistent, he is expected to surpass three total touchdowns and accumulate significantly more rushing yards. Additionally, there is a strong possibility that he becomes the main player if one of the starters gets injured. This choice represents excellent value for NFL fantasy drafts.

Tony Pollard u5.5 rushing touchdowns for -142 on BetOnline:

Although Spears currently does not have any future bets, his competitors do. The sportsbooks have intentionally set a low line of -142 for him to score only 6 touchdowns, suggesting that both Vegas and I anticipate Spears having a significant role in the run game. While this particular bet may not be as valuable as others, it perfectly demonstrates why Spears is a necessary addition to any NFL fantasy draft.

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3. Value Running Backs NFL Fantasy Round Twelve: JK Dobbins

JK Dobbins is set to join a different team, offering him a brand-new beginning.

JK Dobbins’ early NFL journey has been plagued by misfortune. Despite completing his rookie season, he has only managed to participate in 9 games over the next three seasons. Nevertheless, whenever he has had the opportunity to showcase his skills, he has demonstrated the talent that made him a highly regarded prospect during his draft year. Presently, Dobbins finds himself in a new environment, having transitioned from Baltimore to the Chargers. With the Chargers’ new head coach Harbaugh leading the charge, the team is expected to prioritize a run-first approach, providing Dobbins with a promising setting to thrive in.

Although there is a certain level of risk associated with selecting Dobbins in the draft, it is worth noting that at this stage, most other participants are opting for kickers or defenses. It is within these final rounds of your fantasy draft that you will discover one of the most promising prospects with a high potential. Dobbins undeniably possesses exceptional talent, having demonstrated his capability to become a formidable force through his combination of power and receiving skills when he is in good health. In his debut season (2020), he maintained an impressive average of 6.0 yards per carry.

Despite the presence of Gus Edwards on the Chargers, reports suggest that Dobbins is now in good health and may contend for the starting position. Even in a shared backfield, his skillset could result in substantial playing time. If he fully recovers, not only could he be a valuable late-round pick in NFL fantasy drafts, but he has the potential to make a significant impact and potentially lead a team to victory.

NFL Fantasy Football 2024 Late Round Value Picks & Bets: Running Backs

1. Running Back Value Round Nine: Zach Moss

2. NFL Fantasy Round Ten Value Running Backs: Tyjae Spears

3. Value Running Backs NFL Fantasy Round Twelve: JK Dobbins

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