MLB Must Bet Props: Sides, Hits & Home Runs | June 12, 2024

For those who observe, wishing you a joyful payday. Embrace this splendid day, brimming with non-stop baseball excitement.

Today’s slate caught my attention with a few impressive props.

Top MLB Prop Bets for Wednesday’s Slate

Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.

Write Up Transparency

Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio

I haven’t had a bad day in a while, but I guess that’s what happens when you get too greedy. The results of last night’s card were 3-5, resulting in a loss of 2.89 units.

Let go of it. Embrace the fresh start today brings!

Moneyline: Mets Moneyline (-155)

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The Stank:

Meet the Mets. Step right up and bet on the Mets. 

Another beautiful day to bet against the god-awful Marlins. Today, on the bump for Miami is Braxton Garrett, who has been struggling for most of the season, having only two strong outings against the Diamondbacks and Padres back in May. He is posting a 5.81 ERA along with a WHIP of 1.22. Today, he not only has the worst pitcher matchup rating, according to Batters-Box.com, but He has to face the Mets, who have the highest average hitter matchup rating, which is a few decimals away from being an elite-rated lineup. The Mets have four elite, zero poorly rated hitters, and five hitters above the league strikeout rate. However, Garrett’s average hitter matchup strikeout percentage is only 22.96%, barely above average.

Conversely, the Marlins have an above-average lineup rating today, with zero elite hitters and six hitters above the league strikeout rate. They have to take on Mets start David Peterson,  who has been pretty serviceable in his only two starts this season. Holding the fully loaded Dodgers to only three runs in 5.0 innings pitched. His last outing was against the Nationals, where he went 6.2 innings and only allowed two runs.

The Mets are one of the better teams at home at not allowing many runs, while the Marlins give up many runs regardless of where they are. Coming off of last night’s 4-2 loss to the Marlins, this should be an excellent spot for the Mets to bounce back in the series. 

Additional Play: Mets First Five innings Team Total Over 2.5 (+114)

• The success of the Mets in the first five innings forms the foundation of my entire handicap.
• In three out of his five starts this season, Braxton Garrett has given up more than this number.
• The Marlins have the second highest number of runs allowed in the first five innings, with an average of 3.12.

Player Prop Bet: David Fry 1+ Hit (-160)

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The Stank:

Although it might not be Friday, today still feels like Fry-Day.

Returning to one of my preferred batters to bet on, David Fry, the outfielder for the Guardians, has been showcasing exceptional performance this season. He currently boasts a batting average of .326 and an impressive OPS of 1.024. With eight home runs and 29 RBIs, Fry is proving to be a rising star. Undoubtedly, the loyal Guardians fans are captivated whenever he steps up to the plate.

Today, Fry is up against Reds starter Nick Lodolo, who is considered a tough opponent. Lodolo has been extremely successful this season, boasting a WHIP of 0.99 and an ERA below 3.00. However, there is no need to be concerned because Fry has proven his ability to handle every pitch in Lodolo’s repertoire. Fry’s exceptional performance against left-handed pitching is truly remarkable, with a batting average of .375, an OPS of 1.276, and five home runs. This impressive display of skill is enough to excite any baseball fan.

Although it’s not Friday, it’s still a fry-day.

David Fry is expected to have a hit with odds of -160 in the game against MGM. Additionally, the odds for him hitting a home run are +525 against BR.

Fry has the 5th best matchup rating today on https://t.co/PVf9G4uG61. He records a hit 75.0% of the time when having an elite rating. pic.twitter.com/XgIdT0R2yF

— Colby Marchio (@C_Marchio2) June 12, 2024

Fry’s stats keep improving as he ranks as the fifth highest-rated hitter today on Batters-Box.com. Known for his elite performance, Fry has achieved an impressive 75% record, earning him 12 Elite Ratings. Considering his recent 0-3 performance in last night’s game, this presents a great opportunity for Fry to bounce back and deliver a hit for us.

Happy Fry-Day!

Sprinkle of the Day: David Fry Home Run (+525)

Where to find more advanced analytics

When it comes to finding the top matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers, Batters-Box.com is my preferred website. Although it may not have all the answers, it serves as an excellent starting point for anyone venturing into their daily baseball bets. I experienced great success last season, earning a total of 98 units with the help of Batters-Box.com. If you’re skeptical, feel free to verify my achievements on my Action profile @cmarchio.

In addition to FanGraphs, I make use of Statmuse and ESPN to gather additional statistics that assist me in determining whether a player is deserving of my attention or not.

Good luck this season you psychos!

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