Happy Hump Day!
Get ready for a full day of baseball with these exciting MLB picks!
Let’s have a memorable day!
Top MLB Prop Bets for Wednesday’s Slate
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The card from last night resulted in a record of 2 wins and 5 losses, resulting in a loss of 3.6 units.
Team Total Prop: Orioles F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (+105)
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After scoring, Baltimore stars Jordan Westburg and Cedric Mullins exchange low-fives.
The Stank:
If I didn’t provide at least one first five team total, it wouldn’t be a write-up from me.
Today, I am confident that the Orioles will surpass 2.5 runs in the first five innings. Their opponent, Marlins starter Edward Cabrera, holds the lowest pitcher rating according to Batters-Box.com’s current season ratings. Cabrera’s performance this season has been disappointing, with a 7.36 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP. In five out of his eight starts, he has allowed teams to surpass this run threshold, and in seven out of eight starts, he has conceded at least two runs.
With an impressive average of over 55%, he possesses the strongest hitter matchup hard contact. Cabrera, unfortunately, surrenders a substantial amount of hard contact, which explains why Baltimore boasts an abundance of exceptional hitters today. Batters-Box.com lists a total of nine elite hitters for the Orioles. Additionally, the Marlins are highly susceptible to allowing the most runs within the first five innings. On the other hand, the Orioles rank among the top ten in the first five innings, averaging an impressive 2.81 runs per game.
The Orioles are expected to have a highly productive offensive day, and given the favorable odds, I would confidently place this bet without hesitation.
Total Bases Prop: Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 (+125)
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The Stank:
Following a challenging outing with a 0-4 record last night, Gunnar Henderson, who currently holds the top position in Batters-box.com’s seasonal rankings, is ready to seek redemption in tonight’s game.
Once again, the Orioles’ highly skilled young talent showcases the highest matchup rating. They will be up against Edward Cabrera, who currently holds the lowest rating among pitchers on the slate. Cabrera’s statistics are quite discouraging, with a 7.36 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP. The majority of his pitches fall below the league average, except for one that is slightly above by two decimal points.
Over the course of his past five games, Henderson has upheld a batting average of .273 and an OPS of .788. He has accumulated ten hits, including two extra-base hits. Although he had a game without any hits yesterday, the favorable matchup in Miami indicates that Henderson has a great chance to showcase his skills and excel.
Sprinkle of the Day: Gunnar Henderson Home Run (+725)
- Henderson, an elite player this season, hits a home run 27.91% of the time based on a sample size of 43 at-bats.
- Went 0-4 last night
- Theory of the Following Day – I had positive feelings towards him in the past – let’s repeat it.
- The price for a top ten hitter who can hit home runs is absolutely crazy.
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
When it comes to finding the top matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers, I always rely on Batters-Box.com. While it may not provide all the answers, it is an excellent starting point for anyone venturing into daily baseball bets. In fact, I managed to increase my winnings by 98 units last season thanks to Batters-Box.com. Don’t just take my word for it, you can verify my success on my Action profile @cmarchio.
In addition, I utilize FanGraphs, Statmuse, and ESPN to gather additional statistics that aid in determining whether a player is worth my attention or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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