MLB Must Bet Props: Team Totals & Strikeouts | June 22, 2024

The best day of the week has finally arrived, Saturday. A day filled with sports, relaxation, and cashed bets. 

Let me share a couple of exciting plays from the Diamondbacks vs Phillies game that I couldn’t help but fall in love with this morning. This particular matchup was talking to me all morning. The stats were too juicy to look away.

Let’s have another fantastic weekend!

Top MLB Prop Bets for Saturday’s Slate

Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.

Write Up Transparency

Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio

Although last night’s card was somewhat painful, it’s a bit comforting to know that we only lost 1.1 units despite going 2-4-1.

Today marks the beginning of a fresh start. We awaken with determination and work relentlessly towards our goals.

Strikeout Prop: Tommy Henry Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+126)

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The Stank:

Diamondbacks starter Tommy Henry has a lot on his plate Saturday afternoon in Philadelphia. Facing the highest-rated team on both Batters-Box.com’s default (last three seasons) and current season ratings. Arizona has four elite hitters with zero poor-rated hitters and only one hitter above the league average strikeout rate.

Henry has the lowest pitcher rating in both timeframes scheduled for today. Additionally, his average hitter matchup strikeout rating falls significantly below the league average of 15.72%, which is approximately 20%.

Despite being in the middle of the pack in terms of strikeout rate, the Phillies’ performance in this area is not significant due to Henry’s tendency to allow a significant amount of hard contact. Today, Henry has the highest average hitter hard contact percentage at 46.4%. The fact that the top nine Phillies players consistently make hard contact nearly 50% of the time is not only impressive but also highly enticing for any baseball enthusiast.

Henry has only managed to surpass the low number in a few games this season, which is quite frightening. However, it is worth noting that these accomplishments were against teams that have a hard time avoiding strikeouts, namely the Cubs, Cardinals, and Rockies.

I doubt that Mr. Henry will reach the fifth inning.

Team Total: Phillies First Five Innings Team Total Over 2.5 (-145)

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The Stank:

First five team totals are my go-to strategy for the MLB season; it’s where I find my bread and butter.

As mentioned previously, all indications suggest that the Phillies are poised for a dominant afternoon. Tommy Henry ranks lowest in pitcher ratings on both Batters-Box.com, exhibiting the highest rate of hard contact allowed and an alarmingly low percentage of strikeouts against average hitters.

What I find most exciting about Philadelphia’s matchup today is the fact that they possess four exceptional hitters according to the default ratings, and an impressive total of seven according to the current season ratings. It’s mind-blowing to have more than half of your lineup filled with elite players.

Throughout the entire season, the Phillies have consistently emerged as the top-scoring team in the first five innings, maintaining an impressive average of 3.02 runs per game. This dominance amplifies when playing at home, where they exhilaratingly average 3.25 runs per game. In stark contrast, Arizona’s defense falters as they concede the ninth highest number of runs in the first five innings, allowing an average of 2.67 runs per game.

There is no need to excessively analyze this play. The statistics are readily available. Let’s go Phils!

Where to find more advanced analytics

When it comes to finding the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers, Batters-Box.com is my top choice. While it may not have all the answers, it serves as an excellent starting point for my daily baseball bets. In the previous season, I saw a significant increase of 98 units using Batters-Box.com. If you’re skeptical, feel free to verify my credibility by checking out my Action profile @cmarchio.

In addition to that, I rely on FanGraphs, Statmuse, and ESPN to gather additional statistics that assist me in determining whether a player is deserving of my attention or not.

Good luck this season you psychos!

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