Hope you’re all having a fantastic Saturday, my wonderfully unique and mischievous bunch!
Today, there is an abundance of games across various sports. However, I came across a few team totals from the highest-scoring teams in the league during the initial five innings that captivated me with their remarkable worth. So, let’s delve into it!
Above all, remember to be polite because today is Saturday!
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I have had a record of 19-12-1 (+22.64u) since Monday.
Having a challenging week has made this journey difficult, but today we are determined to maintain that same level of energy.
Team Total: Phillies F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (-125)
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After hitting a home run, Kyle Schwarber, the standout player for the Phillies, excitedly flips his bat in celebration.
The Stank:
Let’s take advantage of some pitchers with the worst matchup ratings today.
Today, Marlins starter Roddery Munoz, who has the worst pitcher matchup rating, according to Batters-Box.com, faces a daunting task. He has to contend with four elite-rated hitters from the Phillies, who also have an average hitter with an elite rating. This is particularly challenging given that Philadelphia is the best-scoring team in the first five innings, averaging 3.09 runs per game and 3.25 at home.
Munoz is posting a disgusting 5.80 ERA along with a WHIP of 1.40. He has allowed 15 runs in his last four outings. Allowing teams to go over 2.5 runs in four of his seven starts this season. This season, the Marlins are allowing the third most runs to opponents in the first five innings with 3.06 runs per game.
The Phillies offense should have themselves a Saturday getting on top of every Munoz pitch they see. Over 2.5 (-120) GIVE ME IT!
Team Total: Diamondbacks F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (+100)
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The Stank:
Coming into today’s matchup, Oakland Athletics starter Hogan Harris has the second-worst pitcher matchup rating, according to Batters-Box.com. He will be going up against three elite hitters and the third-best overall graded team, which received a great rating. Harris is posting a 2.72 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP this season —solid numbers for a pitcher who gives up so much hard contact. He has allowed teams to go over 2.5 runs in four of his seven starts this season.
Harris will be up against the Diamondbacks, who are undoubtedly the top early-scoring team he has encountered this season. Arizona’s home performance has been exceptional, averaging 3.29 runs per game. Moreover, they rank fourth overall in scoring during the first five innings, with an average just shy of 3.0 at 2.99 runs per game.
Back out in front. pic.twitter.com/xPBCWziFHi
— Arizona Diamondbacks (@Dbacks) June 29, 2024
The Diamondbacks’ lineup, featuring Randal Grichuk, Ketel Marte, and Christian Walker, possesses exceptional ratings on Batters-Box.com. They are a formidable force that cannot be underestimated. Despite a sluggish start last night, they are expected to quickly gain momentum today and effortlessly surpass the three-run threshold.
Full Transparency: I also put a unit on the F5 total over 4.5 (+100) between the A’s and Diamondbacks, so take that information however you wish. Why? The Athletics have a decent enough matchup today to at least contribute to a few runs, but I think the safer play is the Diamondbacks team total in the first five innings. Plus, Oakland allows the most runs in the first five innings in baseball (3.10 per game).
Where to find more advanced analytics
When it comes to finding the top matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers, Batters-Box.com is my ultimate go-to website. Although it may not provide all the answers, it serves as an excellent starting point for my daily baseball bets. In fact, I managed to increase my profits by 98 units last season by utilizing Batters-Box.com. Don’t just take my word for it, feel free to verify my success by checking out my Action profile @cmarchio.
In addition to FanGraphs, Statmuse, and ESPN, I utilize these platforms to assess a player’s value and determine whether they are worth my investment.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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