NFL Fantasy Football 2024 Top 3 Value Picks: Running Backs

I know, I know. I’m the hockey guy at Betting News. I go by Gretzky Betzky, I host PUCK IT and I eat, breathe and sleep puck. But I’m also an AVID fantasy football nerd who is in two dynasty leagues, partaking in 5+ leagues annually and been addicted to being a fake GM for 15 years now. From draft day on I will watch player ADP like they are stock tickers, hunting down value. And while the NHL is snoozing, I’ll be contributing my NFL expertise in the fantasy football realm.

This will become an ongoing series where I highlight players who REEK of value in fantasy drafts. We aren’t talking about grabbing McCaffrey with the 1st overall pick, but instead we are going to be finding gems. Each article will feature a position within a range of draft rounds (we will always skip the 1st round). We will assume that these picks are for 12-team leagues with .5 PPR and will not be discussing in terms of Superflex. On top of that I’ll highlight a futures bet that corresponds with each player, all of whose odds can be found on BETONLINE.

Without wasting any more time, let’s begin the discussion of the top 3 value picks for running backs in NFL fantasy football 2024. Get ready, because it’s mock draft season!

1. Running Back Value Round Two: Travis Etienne

I was completely obsessed with Travis Etienne last season. The Jacksonville Jaguars had just delivered an incredibly thrilling playoff victory, which could possibly go down as one of the most captivating moments in NFL history. They managed to overcome a massive 7-27 deficit against the Los Angeles Chargers and emerged victorious with a 31-30 score. The excitement surrounding the team was palpable.

In the 2023-2024 NFL season, expectations were high for quarterback Trevor Lawrence to become the next prominent fantasy quarterback, while the team’s offense was predicted to excel. However, disappointingly, none of these anticipated outcomes materialized. Both in real-life football and fantasy football, all the skill players experienced a regression in their performance.

However, I believe the struggles can be attributed to unfortunate circumstances and anticipated regression due to opponents having more film on the team’s offense and better understanding of Lawerence’s playing style. Despite this, the team still possesses ample talent in their skill positions, and the addition of exceptional wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. further strengthens their roster. I anticipate Lawerence and the Jaguars to make a comeback in both fantasy football and real-life games. In fact, I consider all skill positions on the team to be excellent value plays in fantasy football, particularly Travis Etienne.

Currently, the second round of fantasy drafts consists of two categories of running backs: established veteran players and promising second-year players. Personally, I am not inclined to spend a high draft pick on players like Saquon Barkley, who has a history of injuries and will be playing for a new team with a quarterback, Jalen Hurts, known for his ability to score touchdowns. Similarly, Johnathan Taylor finds himself in a comparable situation with the Indianapolis Colts. In contrast, Achane and Kyren Williams, both second-year players, are frequently selected in the second round, but their workload raises some doubts. Therefore, I believe that Etienne is the better choice in this scenario.

Despite not feeling like it, Etienne ranked #3 for running backs in specific .5 PPR formats last season. Although he had over 100 fewer yards compared to his rookie year and a significantly lower yards per carry (3.78 vs 5.11), he compensated for this with an increase in touchdowns and receptions. He scored 12 TDs, which is 7 more than his rookie season, and caught nearly 20 more receptions. Consequently, I would confidently consider selecting Etienne early in the 2nd round.

It is likely that Etienne will score fewer than 12 touchdowns this season. However, considering his increased involvement in the passing game last year, I believe this will be offset, making him a strong candidate for a top 5 running back in the second round of fantasy drafts. Without a doubt, this represents the ultimate value for a fantasy football running back in round 2!

Travis Etienne o925.5 rushing yards for -110 on BetOnline:

Etienne’s performance has been greatly underrated. He has achieved over 1,000 rushing yards in each of his two seasons. The Jaguars have not made significant additions to their backfield, and their recently drafted player, Tank Bigsby, did not demonstrate much potential in his rookie year. With little competition, Etienne is expected to handle the majority of the workload, allowing him to easily surpass this betting line.

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2. Value Running Backs Round Three: Isiah Pacheco

In Round 3, the running back options become a bit limited. However, if you already selected wide receivers in the first two rounds, there is one running back that I would be ecstatic to have as my first choice, and that’s Isiah Pacheco. Pacheco holds the starting position for the highly productive Kansas City Chiefs’ offense. He proved to be a dependable player last season, and although he hasn’t been ranked higher than the 17th best running back, his role within the team is steadily expanding. Both head coach Andy Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes have shown increased confidence in his abilities.

Last season, Pacheco scored a total of 9 touchdowns, with 2 of them being receiving touchdowns. During his rookie year, he managed to score 5 touchdowns. Despite missing 3 games, Pacheco was ranked as the 17th best running back in .5 PPR leagues. It is worth noting that he only had one game with less than 10 fantasy points in full PPR leagues, showcasing his development as a versatile player.

Mahommes has displayed a growing confidence in his receiving skills, evident in the significant increase of targets from 14 to 49 over his first two seasons. This improvement translated into 244 receiving yards achieved through 44 successful receptions. Additionally, the Kansas City team boasts multiple capable running backs, none of whom possess exceptional talent that would result in Pacheco losing his workload. These running backs should provide valuable support, preventing Pacheco from experiencing exhaustion or breakdown due to excessive workload.

Pacheco fell short with a total of 191.9 fantasy points in .5 PPR leagues, but had he not missed any games, he would have reached an impressive 246.7 points. Throughout the 14 games he did play, he maintained an average of 13.7 fantasy points in .5 PPR leagues. This level of running back value is usually not attainable in the 3rd round of drafts, making Pacheco a highly desirable RB1 option for those who prioritize drafting wide receivers in the first two rounds.

Isiah Pacheco o900.5 rushing yards for -115 on BetOnline:

Pacheco, having accumulated 935 rushing yards in 14 games with a YPC of 4.56, is expected to surpass this milestone with a healthy season. In fact, he was on track to reach 1,135.26 yards in a full 17 games, considering the competition is arguably less challenging than the previous season. Adding to the Chiefs’ strength is their formidable receiving core, which now includes experienced players like Rice and Moore, promising rookie Xavier Worthy, and veteran Hollywood Brown. This improved receiving group should prevent opposing teams from overcrowding the defensive line, resulting in more opportunities for Pacheco to excel.

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3. Round Four Value Running Backs: Alvin Kamara

This fantasy football season, the running back position appears to have ample depth. Valuable options can be found from the fourth round onwards, making the WR-WR strategy a highly viable choice. Acquiring Pacheco as my RB1 in the third round would be highly satisfying, and selecting Alvin Kamara in the fourth round would be the perfect addition to maximize running back value in the initial four rounds of fantasy football.

Despite Kamara’s previous years as a top 5 running back, he remains an exceptional dual threat in his position. Despite playing only 13 games, he managed to secure the 11th position in PPR league positional rankings. Kamara started the season with a four-game suspension and had a near career low of only 6 total touchdowns. This decline seems like an opportune moment to take advantage of.

When the season starts, Kamara will reach the age of 29. The New Orleans Saints have faced challenges on their offensive line and offense as a whole. Additionally, there will be competition for targets and attacks, with second-year player Kendre Miller taking on a more prominent role. Unfortunately, the Saints did not make any notable improvements at the wide receiver position. Although Chris Olave remains the primary target, there are players like Rashid Shaheed and Cedrick Wilson vying for the WR2 position.

The veteran quarterback is likely to heavily rely on Kamara as his second favorite option in the passing game. Kamara had a total of 86 targets in 13 games last season, averaging 6.61 targets per game. He also recorded 75 receptions and 466 receiving yards during those games. Looking back at previous seasons, Kamara’s best performances came when he was paired with bruiser Mark Ingram, forming a formidable one-two punch for the Saints. This year, the offense seems to be focused on making small, calculated plays rather than relying on big plays. Therefore, the emergence of Miller could allow Kamara to take on a more slot receiver-like role.

Last season, I made sure to select Kamara in almost every draft because he was consistently available in the 6th round due to his suspension. With the excitement surrounding rookies and training camp, there’s a possibility that Kamara’s value might drop even further to the 5th round. This is precisely the kind of running back value I seek in fantasy football. I want to have Alvin on my team in all leagues.

Alvin Kamara u4.5 rushing touchdowns for -110 on BetOnline:

I understand that this might not align with the narrative of value, but I believe Kamara will still excel in terms of receiving touchdowns. Despite having less than 5 rushing touchdowns in a season, which might raise concerns, it’s important to note that Kamara has only achieved this feat twice throughout his career. Furthermore, he managed to secure 5 rushing touchdowns last season, despite facing challenges within the running back core. With Kendre Miller and Jamaal Williams experiencing significant absences, there was a lack of support at the goal line, potentially limiting Kamara’s rushing opportunities. Additionally, Kamara only recorded a single receiving touchdown last season, but it’s worth mentioning that he has achieved 4 or more receiving touchdowns in four separate seasons since 2017. Considering these factors, it’s plausible to anticipate Kamara reaching 3-4 rushing touchdowns and 5-6 receiving touchdowns this season while also excelling as a PPR machine.

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