Mets vs Pirates MLB Predictions, Odds, Pitchers & Best Bets (7/5)

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On Friday, there is an action-packed MLB schedule featuring thrilling matchups, including the commencement of a three-game series between the New York Mets (42-43) and Pittsburgh Pirates (41-45) at 6:40 p.m. ET.

In an effort to break their two-game losing streak, the Mets are determined to bounce back after their recent 1-0 defeat against the Washington Nationals. Conversely, the Pirates’ record slips even further below .500 following their 3-2 loss to the St. Louis Cardinals yesterday.

Which one of these clubs will recover and secure a victory tonight?

To determine the answer, we can delve into my predictions for the Mets vs. Pirates matchup and share the top MLB bets for the day.

2024 MLB Betting Picks Record: 42-52-1 (44.7%)

MLB Betting Today: Mets vs Pirates (7/5)

Mets vs Pirates Game Information

Matchup: New York Mets (42-43, 21-18 Away) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (41-45, 20-22 Home)
Venue & Location: PNC Park (Pittsburgh, PA)
Date: Friday, July 5, 2024
Game Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
How to Watch Mets vs. Pirates: MLB.TV, Fubo, SNY

Mets vs Pirates MLB Probable Pitchers

Mets: Luis Severino (16 starts — 5-2, 3.42 ERA)
Pirates: Paul Skenes (9 starts — 4-0, 2.06 ERA)

Pirates vs Mets MLB Odds & Spread

Pirates vs. Mets MLB odds are courtesy of BetOnline as of Friday, July 5 at 9:20 a.m. ET. Odds from other top online sportsbooks may also be mentioned in this article.

Mets vs Pirates Run Line

New York Mets +1.5 (-190)
Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 (+165)

Pirates vs Mets Over/Under

Over 7.5 Runs (-115)
Under 7.5 Runs (-105)

Mets vs Pirates Moneyline

New York Mets (+116)
Pittsburgh Pirates (-126)

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Mets vs Pirates MLB Betting Trends

In their most recent 14 away games, the Mets have achieved a 10-4 record.
In their previous seven games, Pittsburgh has a record of 5 wins and 2 losses when playing as the favored team.
In seven out of the Mets’ last 10 games against the NL Central, the total fell below the expected hits.
In six out of Pittsburgh’s last nine home games, the total fell below the Under.
In four out of the last five Mets-Pirates matchups, the total exceeded the expected score.

Mets vs Pirates Predictions & MLB Picks Today (7/5)

If both teams want to stay in the National League playoff race, it is absolutely necessary for them to secure a win tonight. The Mets currently trail the St. Louis Cardinals by 2.5 games, hoping to claim the final NL wild-card spot. On the other hand, the Pirates are four games behind the Cardinals.

This is not the first time these NL teams are facing each other this season. They had a three-game series at Citi Field in April, where the Mets swept the Pirates and outscored them 18-5 overall. The Mets have a record of 5-1 in their last six meetings with Pittsburgh after this sweep.

However, the Mets’ hot streak in June has ended as they have returned to reality. They have lost four out of their last six games and in their recent defeat against the Nationals, they were only able to manage a single hit.

Meanwhile, the Pirates have encountered a range of outcomes, facing a setback in four out of their last six games. Furthermore, they tend to face difficulties when competing against NL East teams, having a 3-6 record in their previous nine matchups within the division.

Will the Pirates’ recent struggles against the Mets and NL East come back to bite them?

The Pirates have a notable advantage in their pitching department with the presence of Paul Skenes, a highly-touted talent. As the top pick in the 2023 draft, Skenes has exceeded expectations, maintaining an impressive record of 4 wins and 0 losses with a 2.06 ERA. Additionally, he showcases his prowess by averaging 12 strikeouts per nine innings across his initial nine starts.

Notably, Skenes has managed to limit his opponents to only one or zero runs in his previous four outings, adding to his impressive performance.

The Mets are strategizing to face the former top prospect by relying on experienced right-handed pitcher, Luis Severino. This seasoned player, who has been consistent throughout the season, previously defeated the Pirates three months ago. In that game on April 17, Severino struck out four batters and only allowed one earned run in a decisive 9-1 victory.

That being said, Severino’s latest appearance was rather unsteady as he allowed four earned runs on eight hits to the Houston Astros, which occurred just this past Sunday.

Can Pirates RHP Paul Skenes outduel Mets RHP Luis Severino?

With Skenes on the mound, it’s a no-brainer to back the Pirates to win. Pittsburgh performs well with the 21-year-old ace on the mound, which is bad news for a Mets team that was nearly no-hit by the Nationals yesterday. April’s sweep will only further motivate the Pirates to pick up the win tonight.

As for the best bet, let’s go with under four runs for the first five innings. Skenes and Severino are both tremendous talents who are playing at a high level, so I don’t expect to see much offense until one (or both) of them is removed from the matchup.

Mets vs. Pirates MLB Prediction: PIT wins

Best Mets vs. Pirates Bet: First 5 Innings — u4 Total Runs (-115)

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Best Mets vs Pirates MLB Player Prop (7/5)

With the ability to make any batter look foolish, it’s a no-brainer to back Paul Skenes o7.5 total strikeouts (-130) as the best Mets vs. Pirates player prop.

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Skenes is incredibly proficient at accumulating strikeouts. The former LSU player has an impressive average of 7.9 strikeouts in his last eight starts, and he has exceeded this expectation six times. In two of his most recent three starts at PNC Park, he achieved at least eight strikeouts, maintaining an average of 10.6 strikeouts per nine innings in that venue.

Skenes is likely to accumulate a significant number of strikeouts once again, given the Mets’ average of 11.0 strikeouts in their last four games.

Mets vs Pirates MLB Predictions, Odds & Best Bets (7/5)