Saturday MLB Must Bet Props: Home Runs, Total Bases & Sides | June 1, 2024

Wishing a joyful Saturday to everyone, regardless of their circumstances. Today is a day to appreciate the beauty of the week and embrace kindness towards all. Let us cherish the company of our loved ones and celebrate unity together.

I will begin our day by focusing on the Rays vs. Orioles game, placing a few bets using information from the diamond.

Happy Saturday. Let’s Rage.

Top MLB Prop Bets for Saturday’s Slate

Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.

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Yesterday the card went up +5.19 units, thanks to a Mr. David Fry, who in fact loves Fridays.

Let’s keep that energy going!

Moneyline: Baltimore Orioles (-166)

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The Stank:

MLB Saturday Must Bet Props: Home Runs, Total Bases & Sides | June 1, 2024

“If you aspire to be a boss, you must be willing to pay the cost.” – BossMan Dlow

BossMan Dlow is correct. Today, we will dominate and place our bets on the Orioles to secure a victory against the Tampa Bay Rays in game two of their three-game series. Let’s show them who the real bosses are and make our payment confidently.

The Orioles take on Rays starter Taj Bradley after the game-one victory last night. Over the past few years, Bradley has been giving up a boatload of hard contact. According to Batters-Box.com, Bradley had the highest average hitter matchup hard contact in both the default and current season ratings.

Although the two-year starter gives up a lot of hard contact, he does strike out a lot of hitters. If that is the only major concern, I can live with that because the Orioles have three elite hitters on the default ratings and five on the current season ratings. On top of that, they have zero poor-rated hitters on both ratings.
Baltimore has also been one of the best teams scoring in the first five innings at home, scoring on average 3.23 runs. I have also added Baltimore’s team total over 2.5 (+120) for transparency. The value alone is worth even the smallest of sprinkles.

Back Bradish and Baltimore

However, today the Orioles have Kyle Bradish as their starting pitcher. He has had an impressive start to the season, boasting a 1.75 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in his five starts. Among all pitchers playing today, the 27-year-old has the highest rating for the current season. Additionally, the opposing team has eight hitters who are not performing well, with seven of them having a higher strikeout rate than the league average. Although his overall rating is still strong in the default ratings, it’s worth noting that these ratings are based on performance from the past three years.

The Rays have deviated from our familiar expectations in recent years. They currently rank among the lowest-scoring teams in the first five innings, with a mere 1.90 runs (the third worst record). They are only ahead of the Oakland Athletics and the Chicago White Sox (oops, my finger slipped…sorry!). Despite their ability to mount late-game comebacks, I believe the Orioles bullpen will be able to maintain control.

I am more than willing to pay the cost and bet on the Baltimore Orioles to win.

MLB Player Prop Bet: Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 Total Bases (+117)

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The Stank:

How about we delve into the player props market?

Today, the number one hitter on Batters-box.com in both the current season and default ratings is Mr. Gunnar Henderson. The Orioles’ stud shortstop has been electrifying all year long at home, hitting .259, with an OPS of .939, while mashing 18 home runs (tied-2nd most). Today, we just need the 22-year-old to go over 1.5 total bases. With an elite rating, Henderson goes over this prop 56.72% of the time. He records at least a hit 71.64% of the time. He has also exceeded this number in 27 of his 55 games this year.

Today’s game becomes even more enticing due to the promising matchup between Henderson and Taj Bradley’s pitches. Henderson has displayed outstanding performance this season against curveballs and splitters, boasting averages above .400, an OPS as high as 1.250, and a wRC+ well above 300. These impressive statistics suggest that the odds are in our favor as young Gunnar Henderson and the Orioles roster gear up to face Bradley and the Rays.

Sprinkle of the Day: Gunnar Henderson Home Run (+490) 

• He achieves a home run in 26.87% of the games where he has an elite rating.

Where to find more advanced analytics

When it comes to my daily MLB wagers, Batters-Box.com is my top choice for finding the most reliable matchup ratings. While it may not have all the answers, it is an excellent starting point for anyone venturing into their daily baseball bets. I can personally attest to its effectiveness as I managed to increase my units by 98 last season using Batters-Box.com. Still skeptical? Feel free to verify my claims by checking out my Action profile @cmarchio.

In addition to FanGraphs, Statmuse, and ESPN, I rely on these platforms to gather additional statistics that aid me in determining a player’s worthiness of my attention.

Good luck this season you psychos!

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