According to reports, Carlos Sainz and Sergio Perez are said to be competing for the Red Bull seat in 2025.
While Sergio Perez is not always hitting the Red Bull criteria to retain his seat, a reluctance to sign Carlos Sainz and the lack of alternatives could save him, so says BBC F1 correspondent Andrew Benson.
Perez had a promising beginning to the F1 2024 season as he aimed to earn a contract extension with Red Bull. He secured second place in four out of the first five races. However, his season took a setback at Imola when Ferrari and McLaren showed signs of catching up to him.
Could lack of Red Bull alternatives keep Sergio Perez in his seat?
Following his surprising first win in the Miami F1 race, Lando Norris showcased McLaren’s progress with their improved MCL38 by relentlessly chasing Max Verstappen from Red Bull for the victory in Imola. However, Verstappen managed to secure the win with a mere 0.7-second advantage.
Perez meanwhile missed the Q3 cut on Saturday, before finishing P8 only on race day. That, according to Benson, does Perez few favours in his quest to land a new Red Bull deal.
During the Chequered Flag podcast, Benson mentioned that Charles Leclerc secured third place in the race. It was a relatively solitary race for him as he was unable to compete with the two drivers ahead, but he maintained a comfortable lead over the rest of the field.
However, this clearly demonstrates his exceptional performance throughout the season, consistently maximizing the potential of his car. Although Carlos Sainz emerged victorious in the race in Australia, it highlights the overall strength of his season.
“But I think while it speaks a lot for Leclerc’s season so far over seven races, it also speaks a lot for Sergio Perez, who’s the guy who he’s replaced in second place [in the Drivers’ Championship].
Verstappen’s winning streak continues as he secures victory in five out of the seven races. Meanwhile, Perez managed to secure an impressive eighth place finish, despite starting from the 11th position. Although overtaking is challenging at Imola, Perez’s performance falls short of expectations while driving for Red Bull. This outcome does not bode well for his chances of remaining in the team.
Alice Powell, a British racer, expressed her opinion on Perez by stating that if he fails to meet the expectations of being the perfect rear-gunner for Verstappen, Red Bull will soon become frustrated.
She stated, “I’ll be straightforward, he is not putting in sufficient effort, especially during this weekend.”
“He begins each season strongly, which appears to be the pattern, but then he experiences a slight decline.”
“We all experience off weekends, so perhaps this is just one of those for him. We will need to closely monitor his performance in the upcoming races.”
The pressure always appears to be on Perez, especially when he is competing against Max Verstappen. However, Red Bull will eventually become frustrated and seek a faster driver who can closely support and challenge Max.
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On the other hand, Benson would argue that if there is a suitable replacement for Perez, it could be a deciding factor for him to continue with Red Bull.
Benson suggests that Carlos Sainz, who will depart Ferrari in 2024 and make way for Lewis Hamilton, has been considered as the frontrunner to replace Perez. However, Red Bull seems hesitant to reintegrate Sainz into their team due to his strained relationship with Verstappen during their time together at Red Bull’s junior team Toro Rosso in 2015.
Benson stated that for Perez, the situation is straightforward. Christian Horner had clearly expressed his expectations at the end of the previous season: Perez needed to improve his qualifying performance in order to consistently support Verstappen, which he had struggled with in the past year.
It’s quite shocking that Verstappen won 19 races last year, with Perez only coming in second in about four of them. This is especially surprising considering the exceptional performance of their car.
Up until now this season, he has been outperformed in qualifying by a score of seven to zero, with an average time difference of 0.313 seconds. However, given the extremely close margins between Verstappen and his competitors, Red Bull considers this performance not satisfactory.
“I am not expressing my own opinion. Red Bull has stated that it is not satisfactory. Although they haven’t reiterated it explicitly lately, that was the standard they established for him prior to the beginning of this season.”
“If McLaren and Ferrari continue to match Red Bull’s performance level, it is unlikely that Perez will frequently get involved in that competition. Consequently, this poses a significant risk to his position within the team.”
The potential savior for him lies in the available replacements. While Carlos Sainz seems like the obvious choice, it is worth noting that there was significant tension between Sainz and Verstappen during their time as teammates at Toro Rosso in the early stages of their careers.
Red Bull doesn’t seem very enthusiastic about re-establishing that partnership.
“If we exclude Sainz from consideration, there are no other drivers of top-level standard available to fill that seat.”
Daniel Ricciardo, who races with Red Bull’s second team RB, was initially seen by many as the primary competitor to Perez. However, the eight-time grand prix winner has faced difficulties in making a significant impact in F1 2024, managing to score only five points compared to his teammate Yuki Tsunoda’s 15.
According to F1 commentator Ben Edwards, Ricciardo’s efforts are insufficient to make a strong impression on Red Bull’s decision-making process.
“He mentioned that Ricciardo’s qualifying performances against Yuki Tsunoda this year are quite comparable to Perez versus Verstappen.”
Tsunoda performed exceptionally well this weekend, while Ricciardo managed to make it into Q3, which is a decent achievement. However, I’m afraid Ricciardo needs to step up his game further.
Over the years, I have been a devoted fan of Ricciardo. However, he needs to step up his game if he wants to join a top-tier team. If they are interested in him, he must demonstrate that he possesses that additional level of skill. Unfortunately, I’m uncertain if he is currently exhibiting it.
Is Tsunoda a potential replacement for Perez at Red Bull? Benson suggests that Red Bull does not highly regard Tsunoda, indicating that they are unlikely to offer him the promotion.
Benson believes that Ricciardo should prioritize worrying about being replaced by Red Bull reserve Liam Lawson instead of focusing on taking Perez’s seat.
Benson mentioned that Red Bull does not hold Tsunoda in high regard, which is why their initial stance is that Ricciardo needs to outperform Tsunoda before they would even consider placing him in their car.
Despite the comparable qualifying statistics, Ricciardo has managed to outperform Tsunoda on a few occasions this year. However, the margin between Tsunoda and Ricciardo is significantly smaller, with Tsunoda maintaining a slight lead. On average, Tsunoda has an advantage of less than a tenth, solidifying his position ahead of Ricciardo.
“If you happen to be Daniel Ricciardo, securing a Red Bull seat is unlikely. It’s also evident that Tsunoda won’t be getting one. The true question arises: who will ultimately claim the coveted seat?”
The primary concern currently revolves around Ricciardo’s ability to retain his seat for the remainder of the year. It remains uncertain if Helmut Marko, the Red Bull motorsport advisor, will eventually grow weary of Ricciardo and opt to replace him with Lawson.
Despite Lawson’s impressive performance during his five-race stint in 2023 as a replacement for the injured Ricciardo, he was ultimately not chosen for an F1 seat in 2024. The team decided to go with the Ricciardo and Tsunoda pairing instead.
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