Red Bull’s Max Verstappen.
After a thrilling qualifying, it’s time for the Monaco GP race. Always criticised for its lack of excitement and overtaking, this year’s race is sure to be an intriguing one with a variety of events to look forward to.
At PlanetF1.com, we have made projections for the Monaco GP 2024, highlighting the top 10 positions. We also invite our readers to share their own predictions for the upcoming race on Sunday.
Charles Leclerc to end the Monaco curse
10. Alex Albon
With Albon as their representative, Williams has a great opportunity to secure their first point in the Monaco GP. Albon showcased his skills by achieving an impressive P9 in qualifying, falling just short of Yuki Tsunoda’s P8 time by less than a tenth of a second.
However, despite this, Alpine still maintains a better race pace than Williams, especially on a circuit where the Enstone-based team consistently performs well.
In addition, Esteban Ocon commences from the 11th position, presenting Alpine with the opportunity to execute a dual strategy, employing either an undercut or an overcut on Albon in case they are unable to overtake him directly during the initial phase of the race.
9. Pierre Gasly/Esteban Ocon
If Albon obstructs the track and Alpine demonstrates better speed, they can attempt the overcut strategy with Gasly to overtake the Williams. Of course, this assumes that it is Gasly, not Esteban Ocon, who is leading the race before the pit stops opportunity.
Alpine has a significant advantage over Williams by having two cars positioned behind the target. Williams must employ clever tactics to retain their position and respond effectively to the impending threat from behind.
8. Yuki Tsunoda
This season, the Japanese driver continues to amaze by qualifying in P8.
He aims to secure the best position of P8, considering his race against Albon and the Alpines trailing behind, as well as Lewis Hamilton and Max Verstappen leading the pack. Barring any unforeseen circumstances, it should be achievable.
7. Lewis Hamilton
After being ahead of his team-mate all Friday and Saturday morning, Hamilton was out-qualified by George Russell in Q1, Q2 and Q3.
Despite being a seven-time World Champion, he failed to showcase the necessary spark to secure a top five position, trailing behind Russell and Verstappen. This marked a significant chance to achieve his best qualifying performance of the season thus far.
His primary focus tomorrow should be on defending against attacks from behind instead of trying to disrupt Verstappen. Mercedes, considering recent events at Imola, believes that as a team, they have more to lose than to gain.
6. George Russell
It’s difficult to envision Russell managing to keep up with a determined Max Verstappen for 78 laps, as Verstappen is focused on minimizing any potential harm.
While it is true that the Red Bull is not displaying its usual speed in Monaco this weekend, the Mercedes is surprisingly performing better compared to previous races. However, it is evident that the Red Bull still holds the upper hand, and with Max driving, the least we can expect from him is to facilitate George’s victory effortlessly.
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5. Max Verstappen
Max and the Red Bull are not satisfied with their P5 position. However, it must be acknowledged that the Milton Keynes-based team is lacking the necessary pace to compete with McLaren and Ferrari in Monaco.
Furthermore, in addition to traversing the obstacle of George Russell’s Mercedes, it becomes increasingly challenging for Max to progress due to the diminished performance gap between the two cars this weekend as well as the inherent difficulties associated with overtaking in Monte Carlo. As such, it is unlikely that Max will be able to surpass these hindrances.
4. Lando Norris
Whether Lando Norris secures a favorable position will heavily rely on his start. Ferrari has demonstrated impressive race pace during Friday’s long runs, while McLaren holds a slightly lower top speed.
In Monaco, this aspect holds little significance, although it can provide a minimal chance for overtaking. Alternatively, employing the undercut strategy is another option, but it seems unlikely that McLaren will hold a considerable advantage over Ferrari to make it happen.
3. Carlos Sainz
At Turn 1, the Spanish driver will have a slight advantage over Oscar Piastri as he will be starting on the inside of the grid.
Nevertheless, the intention of the Ferrari driver is to assist Charles Leclerc in securing the victory, as he has already expressed. It would not be advantageous to take any risks at the beginning of the race in order to achieve this goal.
Instead of relying on Piastri to have a poor start and hoping to secure a 1-2 position right from the beginning, it would be wiser to put pressure on the Australian driver. This would create an opportunity for Leclerc to build a significant lead and avoid the risk of being undercut.
2. Oscar Piastri
Oscar Piastri’s performance in Monaco deserves recognition. As an Australian driver who has yet to secure a podium finish in Formula 1, his achievement of a second place at such a renowned circuit is undeniably impressive.
If the MCL38 is capable of outpacing Ferrari, McLaren can utilize both the overcut and undercut strategies to contend for first place. However, it will be challenging to take advantage of these tactics due to the limited difference in pace and the lower likelihood of significant degradation.
1. Charles Leclerc
Despite not having the fastest car in qualifying, Charles Leclerc has the potential to shatter his curse in Monaco after showcasing his dominance on Friday and Saturday.
The Ferrari driver, who will begin the race from the coveted pole position, will face a challenging circuit that offers limited opportunities for overtaking. Additionally, their SF24 boasts a higher top speed and marginally superior race performance compared to the MCL38 specifically at this track.
After enduring numerous challenges on the streets of his home country, this upcoming weekend should finally fulfill Leclerc’s long-awaited dream. It may even mark his first victory since Austria 2022.
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