Bobby Green and Paddy Pimblett, two highly regarded fighters in the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Lightweight division, are set to face off this weekend on Saturday, July 27, 2024. Their thrilling match will take place at UFC 304, which will be held inside the prestigious Co-Op Live arena located in Manchester, England.
Despite being 37 years old, Green’s remarkable natural athleticism and skill have allowed him to maintain a position at the top of one of the sport’s most competitive divisions. Although past his prime, Green’s recent record of winning three out of his last four fights proves that he remains a formidable opponent for most fighters in the division. Undoubtedly, Green presents the biggest challenge yet in Pimblett’s UFC career.
A bit of judging controversy aside, the 29-year-old “Baddy” enters this match up 5-0 inside the Octagon. This is his opportunity to break into the rankings and become more than a popular fighter from the UK — beating Green actually confirms that he’s a relevant player at 155 lbs.
Now, we will examine the betting odds and strategic factors concerning each athlete in more detail.
Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images Green vs. Pimblett Betting Odds
- Bobby Green victory: -120
- The outcome of Bobby Green’s victory is yet to be determined, whether it is via TKO, KO, or DQ.
- Bobby Green via submission: TBD
- Bobby Green via decision: TBD
- Paddy Pimblett victory: +100
- Result: To be determined, Paddy Pimblett wins by TKO/KO/DQ.
- Paddy Pimblett via submission: TBD
- Paddy Pimblett via decision: TBD
- Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images How Green Wins
Bobby Green has dedicated a significant amount of time to this game. With a professional career that began in 2008, Green has consistently taken on notable opponents in the Lightweight division over the past 16 years across multiple promotions. Throughout it all, his style has remained consistent, characterized by polished straight punches, impressive head movement, and an unwavering ability to defend takedowns.
In terms of style, Green is well-suited for this matchup. He has plenty of experience dealing with opponents who attempt to bring him down, and he has successfully defended against takedown experts who are more skilled than Pimblett. In terms of striking, Green is quicker and more precise with his boxing technique, making it likely that he will easily connect with 1-2 combinations on Pimblett’s exposed chin.
The main risk in this situation is age. Green has slowed down a bit while Pimblett is in his prime physical condition. From my perspective, the greatest danger for Green in this matchup is being caught off guard by Pimblett’s aggressive charge. To address this, a potential solution would be to consistently apply pressure on Pimblett, making it harder for him to build momentum for his intense offensive attacks. Furthermore, when Pimblett begins to unleash his combinations, it is crucial for Green to change his position, steer clear of the fence, and avoid retreating in a predictable manner.
Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images How Pimblett Wins
Pimblett is a polarizing figure among fans, attracting both adoration and criticism. The constant drama surrounding him often leads to an exaggerated perception of his skills from his supporters and an undervaluation from his detractors. However, in reality, Pimblett possesses impressive grappling abilities, solid wrestling techniques, and is a formidable but imperfect kickboxer.
Pimblett’s best-case scenario would be to achieve top position, but it seems unlikely without scoring a knockdown first. His takedowns rely more on athleticism rather than technical transitions, which Green tends to avoid effortlessly.
If Pimblett can hurt his man first, however, it’s likely that he can get on top and dominate “King.” To do so, I’d like to see Pimblett firing power kicks then exploding into combination. Pimblett kicks hard, and a solid round kick upstairs can force Green’s hands out of countering position and still his feet. As Green is stuck in place, that’s Pimblett’s best chance to burst forward and create a big connection.
Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images Green vs. Pimblett Prediction
The challenge of anticipating the outcome of this fight stems from the variance in age and physical deterioration.
Generally, I believe Green to be a much better fighter than Pimblett. At one point back in 2014, “King” was ranked in the Top Five and likely a single win away from a shot at UFC gold — heights I do not expect Pimblett to reach. However, it’s undeniable that the two are moving in different directions. Green has already reached his peak and is slowly falling down the ladder, whereas Pimblett’s rise is still ongoing.
Is Green getting older each month, making it more likely for Pimblett to land a powerful punch? Or is Green still skilled enough to outbox Pimblett for the majority of a 15-minute match?
It is difficult to say with complete certainty, but I believe Green’s constant activity is greatly beneficial in maintaining his agility and precise timing. This upcoming fight will mark his fifth within the past year, and he has consistently performed at a top-tier level. Even if he happens to get caught off guard early on, Pimblett does not possess the knockout prowess of fighters like Jalin Turner or Drew Dober. Therefore, there remains a strong possibility that Green will swiftly recover and dominate the next two rounds.
I continue to stand by the veteran.
Prediction: Bobby Green victory (-120)
