Following the money: Jake Paul vs. Mike Perry betting line movements tracker

Jake Paul vs. Mike Perry goes down this weekend (Sat., July 20, 2024) inside Amalie Arena in Tampa, Fla., streaming live on DAZN pay-per-view (PPV). This event was supposed to see Paul taking on Mike Tyson. Unfortunately (?) “Iron” Mike suffered a medical emergency, forcing him to withdraw from the contest. The pair are supposed to resume hostilities in November (I wouldn’t bet on that happening, though).

“Platinum” Perry is the man who has been selected to fill in for the former Heavyweight champ. Perry was a long-time UFC Welterweight who has since found his groove in bareknuckle boxing (lighting up Thiago Alves in BKFC most recently).

The PPV co-main event for “Fear No Man” has Amanda Serrano taking on Stevie Morgan at Super Lightweight. The undisputed Featherweight champ had been slated to rematch Katie Taylor (who she had a “Fight of the Year” with in 2022). However, Serrano vs. Taylor 2 is now targeted for the supposed Paul vs. Tyson make-up date.

Also at this event we have Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. fighting Uriah Hall (who is replacing Darren Till) and a rematch between Tony Aguilar and Corey Marksman.

We should take a look at the money lines for the “Paul vs. Perry” fight and the majority of other matches on the card.

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Jake Paul vs. Mike Perry Line Movement Tracker

Photo by Alex Menendez/Getty Images

Jake Paul (-428 -13.6%) vs. Mike Perry (+338 +31.5%)

The odds on this bout have grown quite a lot since opening. Initially we had Jake Paul as a -250 favorite and Mike Perry as a +200 underdog (per Pro Boxing Odds). With Paul’s odds shortening to -428 it’s clear that the public thinks that initial price was too high and that Paul is likely to get the win over his short notice replacement.

Determining the level of knowledge possessed by the betting public who supports Paul fights is challenging. It is uncertain whether the influx of funds is solely from passionate fans, particularly Gen Zs, who firmly believe that the TikTok sensation they admire will triumph over any opponent.

We’ve seen this kind of line movement with Paul before. In both of his recent squash matches his line decreased by between 5 and 7 percent. Against both Tommy Fury and Anderson Silva Paul’s line decreased by 7.7 and 10.6% with him closing as a slight favorite in those bouts. Against Nate Diaz his odds actually rose by 1.7% to see him close as a -400 favorite.

In my opinion, I believe Paul has a good chance of winning the bout, which explains why many people are betting on the -250 line. However, I think the -400 line is a bit too low for this match. There is a possibility that Perry can secure victory by pressuring Paul and capitalizing on his mistakes. Perry’s high activity level might also frustrate Paul. Nevertheless, I still believe that the most probable outcome is Paul utilizing his reach advantage to keep his distance and land quick punches, leading to a dull decision victory.

Photo By Ed Mulholland / Sportsfile via Getty Images

Amanda Serrano (-3871 0%) vs. Stevie Morgan (+1600 -4.9%)

Amanda Serrano is a massive favorite here against Stevie Morgan. Morgan doesn’t have the skill or experience to pose a serious test to Serrano, who is taking an easy assignment to stay busy while she waits to try and avenge her loss to Kate Taylor. These lines have barely moved because neither are enticing enough for the public to put money down on. Serrano is so certain to win that Vegas have basically taken her off the table for most betters. Morgan’s +1600 looks nice on paper, but her odds are only that high because she stands no chance in this match-up.

On July 17, the line experienced a significant change when Serrano’s odds abruptly decreased to -4286 and then quickly rebounded to -3871.

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Ashton Sylve (-359 +0.1%) vs. Lucas Bahdi (+271 +1.6%)

Ashton Sylve is a decent sized favorite in this match-up. Sylve belongs to Paul’s Most Valuable Promotions and he has been given a platform, both in the ring and on social media, to make himself a star with those who follow ‘influencer boxing’. To his credit, he’s more boxer than influencer and he has some decent skills, as proven by his fantastic body shot TKO in his last bout. Lucas Baldi is a solid pro and the biggest test Sylve has faced. However, he’s on the wrong side of 30 and he likely won’t be able to keep up with the speedy Sylve. As you can see by the line movement, the public felt Vegas had it just right with their opening line.

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Tony Aguilar (+195 +17.5%) vs. Corey Marksman (-225 -10.4%)

Tony Aguilar and Corey Marksman fought to a draw in February. Marksman is the more powerful puncher and he was able to land the hardest punches in his first fight with Aguilar. He came on strong late in the fight after Aguilar took a number of the early rounds. The public must have felt Marksman was a little short changed on the draw decision in February. There has been a steady flow of money pushing him from a -170 favorite to a -225 favorite. I agree with the public that Marksman is a worthy favorite in this bout and he should be too technical for Aguilar in their second meeting.

Photo by Manuel Velasquez/Getty Images

Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. (-298 -10.1%) vs. Uriah Hall (+237 +19.9%)

Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. opened as a -215 favorite and the public seems to think he deserves shorter odds than that. Money on the former WBC Middleweight champ has shortened his odds by around 10%. Uriah Hall opened as +170 and those have grown by almost 20%.

I can understand why the public might be fading Hall. He’s an aging MMA vet who looked just OK in his only pro boxing bout to date — a ho-hum decision win over former NFL running back La’Veon Bell. Hall is also coming in on short notice.

However, Chavez Jr. might be someone who fights down to his opponent, like he did when Anderson Silva beat him in 2021. Chavez Jr. has had an awful 2024 so far, too. He’s been arrested for possessing an illegal assault rifle (after a 911 caller told police he might be a danger to himself) and he’s had a stint in rehab for drugs and alcohol use. He’s also been embroiled in a bitter feud with his Boxing Hall of Fame father Julio Cesar Chavez Sr. The younger Chavez has accused his dad for beating his mother and conspiring to kill him.

Considering all the distractions, I am content with taking a risk on Hall causing an upset in this situation.

Jake Paul vs. Mike Perry Biggest Line Movement

The biggest line movement for this card features Mike Perry, whose opening odds of +200 have ballooned to +338. Perry’s line may be a victim of Paul’s notoriety, with Paul fans flocking to back the vanguard of the influencer boxing movement. Perry will also have a pretty significant size and reach disadvantage against Paul (who has proven a bit of a size bully in his boxing career thus far). If you like Perry in this match-up, you’re probably delighted to see his odds grow. It’s probably wise to wait a little longer to see if they can go any higher.

Jake Paul vs. Mike Perry Best Underdogs Bets

If you like betting on underdogs there aren’t many decent opportunities to do that on this card. My favorite dog is Uriah Hall. Though he’s not as good a boxer as Julio Cesar Chavez Jr., he’s not bringing in the same kind of baggage the former WBC Middleweight champ is dragging along with him. If Chavez Jr. doesn’t have his mind set on competing he could very well lose to another MMA veteran.

But let’s shift the focus away from me, which of these underdogs do you prefer?

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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire Jake Paul vs. Mike Perry card right here, starting with YouTube “Prelims” matches, which are scheduled to begin at 7 p.m. ET (and right here). The remaining PPV main card will air on DAZN at 9 p.m. ET.

To check out the latest and greatest “Paul vs. Perry” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.