UFC 304 is upon us this weekend (Sat., July 21, 2024) from inside Co-op Live in Manchester, England, with a “U.K. vs. The World”-themed card with two champions (sorta) in the main- and co-main slots. The headliner is Welterweight champion, Leon Edwards, defending his title against Belal Muhammad. The co-main sees interim Heavyweight kingpin, Tom Aspinall, defending his belt against Curtis Blaydes, while Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Gregory Rodrigues and Arnold Allen vs. Giga Chikadze round out the pay-per-view (PPV) main card.
The late “Prelims” headliner is Nathaniel Wood vs. Daniel Pineda. Other bouts of note on the undercard include Molly McCann vs. Bruna Brasil and Muhammad Mokaev vs. Manel Kape.
As always, there’s lots to bet on this card (see it here), and we’ve got odds for all the fights below:
UFC 304 Main Card Money Line Odds
Leon Edwards (-250) vs. Belal Muhammad (+205)
Leon Edwards and Belal Muhammad first met in the main event of UFC Vegas 21 in the APEX back on March 13, 2021. The bout went a round and change and ended after Muhammad was deemed unfit to continue due to an accidental eye poke.
Muhammad has maintained, to this day, that he was robbed in that fight and would have beaten the future champ if ‘Rocky’ could have kept his thumb out of his eye. Edwards, on the other hand, was sure that he was on course to victory and — like the UFC — didn’t view Muhammad as a seriously challenger until the pool at Welterweight ran a little dry.
According to the judges’ scorecards, Edwards undeniably emerged as the victor in the sole round these two fighters squared off. His accuracy was evident as he connected with 19 out of 39 significant strikes, disregarding the unfortunate eye poke incident. In contrast, Muhammad struggled to land only 8 out of 26 significant strikes. Edwards showcased an impressive performance in the round, delivering damaging head and body kicks that visibly affected Muhammad. However, Muhammad’s most notable achievement was his ability to hold Edwards against the cage while in survival mode.
Since then Edwards beat Nate Diaz (though was almost embarrassed in the last round there) and then knocked the soul out of Kamaru Usman with a last minute head kick. In the immediate rematch Edwards beat Usman to take a majority decision (majority due to a point deduction on Edwards for a fence grab). Most recently Edwards cruised past Colby Covington.
Muhammad has been more active since their no contest. He’s won five straight, all decisions other than a TKO over Sean Brady at UFC 280 in 2022 (see it here).
Muhammad has looked decent over that run, the latter half has been done while working with Team Khabib Nurmagomedov (in case you hadn’t heard by now). On paper that five fight winning streak looks good. However, it includes wins over a 43-year-old Demian Maia, a 38-year-old Stephen Thompson, a 37-year-old Gilbert Burns and a rapidly declining Vicente Luque. Muhammad himself is now 36-years-old, four years older than Edwards.
I believe that Muhammad will struggle to assert his dominance over Edwards in this match. Edwards has proven himself against superior wrestlers and more formidable strikers in recent years. While Edwards may only have a slight reach advantage, his skills in long-range combat will make it feel much more significant. Additionally, Edwards has an impressive takedown defense rate of 70%. On the other hand, Muhammad’s takedown defense is exceptional at 93%, but Edwards doesn’t necessarily need to execute a takedown to secure victory in this fight.
Edwards should be able to dictate the pace and space of this fight. Muhammad will want to get in his face and grind him against the cage, but I think he will get too beat up in the process of trying that (eating jabs and leg kicks). And eventually he’ll be stuck on the outside looking in with Edwards comfortably managing the range and landing strikes. Muhammad has only been finished once in his career (by a peaking Vicente Luque — see it here). But I believe Edwards was on course to finish him in their first fight with his fast twitch, zero telegraphed kicks. I think if this fight goes multiple rounds, sooner or later, Edwards will land a kick that finishes things.
Pick: Leon Edwards via KO, round 3.
Tom Aspinall (-355) vs. Curtis Blaydes (+280)
The initial encounter between these two fighters, which took place on July 23, 2022, during the main event of UFC London, lasted for only 15 seconds. Check it out below.
Tom Aspinall came out aggressively in the fight, and ate some counter shots, before loading up on a heavy leg kick. He landed it, but blew his ACL out when he brought back his foot and planted it while off balance.
Aspinall has fought twice since then with a combined fight time of just over two minutes and twenty seconds. He battered Marcin Tybua with counter hooks and kicks before dropping him with a step in elbow and straight right and finishing him with ground and pound (check it out here). At UFC 295 in November he took a big shot from Sergei Pavlovich, but then ended him with a pair of right hooks from hell to claim the interim title (see it here).
Curtis Blaydes lost to Pavlovich in 2023. He was able to land some good counters, but his chin couldn’t survive the Russian’s power shots (see the TKO here). He rebounded with a win over Jailton Almeida, though. After losing a round to Almeida, Blaydes stuffed a takedown and put away the Brazilian with hammerfists (see those here).
I believe Blaydes will face difficulties in this match due to Aspinall’s superior hand speed. Pavlovich managed to harm Blaydes with single shots, so it’s unlikely that Blaydes will be able to endure Aspinall’s combinations. While Blaydes has not heavily relied on his wrestling skills in previous fights, it is evident that he possesses an advantage over Aspinall in that aspect.
I believe Blaydes will struggle to achieve takedowns in this fight. Aspinall’s speed will prove to be a challenge, as he can inflict damage on Blaydes with powerful strikes during his takedown attempts.
Prediction: Tom Aspinall via TKO, round 1.
King Green (-125) vs. Paddy Pimblett (+105)
Everyone’s got what they wanted with this match-up, right? Paddy Pimblett has finally been given a dangerous opponent to dance with in the Octagon. The scouser has talked a big game ever since signing for UFC from Cage Warriors in 2020. Now he has to back up those words against a certified finisher.
King Green beat-up Jim Miller at UFC 300 in April. Prior to that he was KO’d by Jalin Turner (watch that KO here). That came after a KO over Grant Dawson and a submission against Tony Ferguson (see it here).
Pimblett has back-to-back decision wins after beating Tony Ferguson at UFC 296. That followed his controversial win over Jared Gordon (where many onlookers bemoaned the judges’ scorecards). Surgery forced Pimblett to take a year off between those fights. It’s been seven months since the Ferguson win.
In this fight, Green is anticipated to be the one taking the hits, but doubts arise regarding Pimblett’s ability to effectively retaliate due to his striking skill and power. However, Green possesses the potential to inflict harm on Pimblett, but only if he manages to catch up with him.
Pimblett is fleet of foot and has great striking defence (62%). I have a feeling we might see a repeat of Ian Machado Garry vs. Michael Page here, with Pimblett avoiding what Green can do and taking the easiest route possible to victory. Every fighter should probably do that, but few are disciplined enough to make it work. Pimblett is probably able to dance around Green and find opportunities to initiate grappling exchanges. In those exchanges, Pimblett will come out on top, though he may struggle to submit the experienced Green.
I really wish Green could humble Pimblett a bit, but I doubt Pimblett is daring enough to provide him with that chance.
Prediction: Paddy Pimblett via unanimous decision.
Christian Leroy Duncan (-142) vs. Gregory Rodrigues (+120)
And now, presenting the highly anticipated fight of the night.
Christian Leroy Duncan is 3-1 in UFC after back-to-back TKO victories. In November he elbowed Denis Tiuliulin to sleep (see it here) and in March he pounded out Claudio Ribeiro. ‘Robocop’ Gregory Rodrigues has had some fun brawls since coming over to UFC in 2021. He also elbowed the heck out of Tiuliulin (see his handiwork here). Last time out Rodrigues TKO’d Brad Tavares (see that one here).
Other than his debut against Dusko Todorovic, Rodrigues has won all his UFC fights via TKO. We’re yet to see much of it yet, but Rodrigues also has a legit BJJ black belt and will probably be leagues ahead of Duncan if they go to the ground.
Rodrigues’ BJJ might be like Edson Barboza’s, excellent, but not something he likes doing in an MMA fight. Even though there’s a great path to victory for Rodrigues there, I think we’re going to see a fun kickboxing match between these two.
Duncan’s chances look promising if that scenario occurs. With a four inch reach advantage and a 62% accuracy rate on significant strikes, his odds are in his favor. While Rodrigues also has decent accuracy (55%), the significant reach difference will greatly disrupt his gameplan in this matchup.
Prediction: Christian Leroy Duncan via unanimous decision.
Arnold Allen (-238) vs. Giga Chikadze (+195)
This could be a very entertaining fight, also. Arnold Allen and Giga Chikadze are both accomplished on the feet, but I’m not sure how much action we’ll see with both men standing.
Allen is coming off two losses which showed how difficult it could be for him to ever break into the elite ranks at Featherweight. Max Holloway showed Allen can’t hang with an elite striker. And Movsar Evloev showed he can’t stay up against an elite wrestler. Fortunately for Allen, this time around he’s fighting someone who isn’t a killer in either department (though Chikadze is certainly a very good kickboxer).
Chikadze was humbled by Calvin Kattar in 2022, following his TKO wins over Edson Barboza (see it here) and Cub Swanson (check it out here). Since that loss, though, he regrouped with a decision win over Alex Caceres.
Chikadze holds a notable advantage in size over Allen, with a four-inch height and reach difference. Additionally, he possesses superior accuracy and striking power. Due to these factors, I believe there are compelling reasons to favor Chikadze in this matchup. I can envision a scenario where Chikadze effectively keeps the fight standing, landing precise shots on Allen and ultimately securing a convincing victory. Perhaps, he might even unleash one of his devastating liver kicks during the bout.
I’m leaning towards Allen as my choice. I believe he will successfully take Chikadze to the ground and dominate the top position, searching for submission opportunities. While Chikadze may be able to defend against the submissions, I don’t think he’ll be able to stop Allen’s takedowns.
Prediction: Arnold Allen via unanimous decision
UFC 304 ‘Late Prelims’ Under Card Odds
Nathaniel Wood (-425) vs. Daniel Pineda (+330)
Nathaniel Wood needs a better nickname. “The Prospect” is a bit of a backhanded compliment for a 21-year-old. For a 30-year-old it’s an insult. Wood has been with the UFC since 2018, debuting with a d’arce over Johnny Eduardo (see it here). He’s racked up some decent wins as of late (Andre Fili, Charles Jourdain), though he’s proved a bit of a decision machine having not stopped a fight since 2019. He’s coming off a decision loss to Muhammad Naimov.
It’s hard to feel like the soon to be 39-year-old Daniel Pineda isn’t just making up the numbers here. He lost to Alex Caceres last time out and has been in and out of the UFC over the past decade.
Both individuals possess solid grappling skills, and I am eagerly anticipating witnessing some engaging ground exchanges and scrambles. Personally, I believe that Wood, who is younger and has undergone more rigorous testing, will come out on top in these exchanges.
Prediction: Nathaniel Wood via unanimous decision.
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Molly McCann (-360) vs. Bruna Brasil (+285)
By now it’s pretty obvious that we can’t book Molly McCann opposite a grappler. She was tapped by Juljia Stoliarenko (quite brutally — see) and Erin Blanchfield over the past few years. Those losses were no fun at all. Nothing like her spinning elbow wins over Hannah Goldy (see it here) and Luana Carolina (see it here). Most recently McCann was able to get a submission of her own, against Diana Belbita (check that out here).
Bruna Brasil is a kickboxer who may have already showed us her ceiling, thanks to a loss to Loma Lookboonmee last time out. That came a year after she was KO’d by Denise Gomes. Brasil will have length on McCann. However, McCann has shown a willingness to crash through space to get to her target and I don’t think a stiff jab is going to scare her off of exploding into the pocket.
I believe McCann will have the opportunity to showcase her expertise here, and she will be motivated by the enthusiastic support from the crowd.
Prediction: Molly McCann via TKO, round 1.
Caolan Loughran (-198) vs. Jake Hadley (+164)
Jake Hadley didn’t look great two months ago when he whiffed on a dozen takedown attempts and was pieced apart by Charles Johnson from range. That followed a loss to Cody Durden where he was pretty overwhelmed.
Caolan Loughran is 1-1 in UFC after beating Angel Pachecho via unanimous decision in March.
In my opinion, this should be considered an evenly matched fight since Loughran’s experience in the UFC is limited and Hadley has demonstrated his ability to win fights against the least skilled opponents in the promotion.
I’m quite impressed with Hadley’s finishing skills, which makes me believe he has a good chance against the relatively inexperienced Loughran.
Prediction: Jake Hadley via submission, round 2.
UFC 304 ‘Early Prelims’ Under Card Odds
Modestas Bukauskas (-155) vs. Marcin Prachnio (+130)
Modestas Bukauskas has had a very up and down time since joining UFC from the Euro scene in 2020. He’s a favorite in this fight, but I don’t like how much damage he has taken over the past few years. Last time out he was slept by a hook from Vitor Petrino (see it here).
Prachnio has taken a lot of lumps in his UFC career, too. But not a lot lately. He was KO’d by Sam Alvey back in 2018 and then lost to a Magomed Ankalaev head kick right after (see it here). He just beat Devin Clark in February, that was after his own loss to Vitor Petrino (via submission).
In terms of statistics, Prachnio surpasses Bukauskaus in various aspects. Prachnio has a higher rate of significant strikes landed per minute, better striking accuracy, lower rate of significant strikes absorbed per minute, and stronger striking defense. Considering these factors, it seems likely that Prachnio will achieve an unexpected victory, especially since he was the underdog (+195) when he defeated Clark.
Prediction: Marcin Prachnio via unanimous decision
Oban Elliott (+114) vs. Preston Parsons (-135)
Oban Elliott hasn’t done much in UFC, but his takedown and top control game looked impressive against Val Woodburn last time out. Preston Parsons is coming off a win over Matthew Semelsberger.
Parsons has a higher level of experience in competitive battles, and his impressive 80% takedown defense surpasses that of Elliott’s previous opponents in the UFC.
Prediction: Preston Parsons via unanimous decision.
Muhammad Mokaev (-148) vs. Manel Kape (+124)
This is buried on the early Prelims for some reason. Maybe the match-makers are thinking Manel Kape’s epic run of bad luck will continue and this fight will fall through at some point this week.
Kape’s last fight was a unanimous decision win over Felipe dos Santos at UFC 293 last year. Around that he’s had fights with Matheus Nicolau, Kai Kara-France, Deiveson Figueiredo and Alex Perez fall through. He’s also tried to fight Israel Adesanya.
Muhammad Mokaev remains undefeated after his unanimous decision win over Alex Perez in March. That moved Mokaev to 11-0 and followed his submission wins over Tim Elliott (see it here), Jafel Filho and Malcolm Gordon.
Kape offers an exciting and unpredictable experience, while Mokaev is the more reliable choice due to his impressive average of 5.75 takedowns per 15 minutes. Although Kape has a solid takedown defense rate of 77%, Mokaev possesses the determination to persist even if his attempts are thwarted multiple times.
Prediction: Mohammad Mokaev via unanimous decision.
Sam Patterson (-380) vs. Keifer Crosbie (+300)
Sam Patterson will have an eight reach inch advantage over Kiefer Crosbie. Crosbie threw down with Kevin Joussett for one round before being submitted in his UFC debut (see it here). I think Patterson should be able to keep him at a distance and also take him down if he needs to.
Prediction: Sam Patterson via submission, round 2.
Mick Parkin (-278) vs. Lukasz Brzeski (+225)
Mick Parkin is probably going to take down Lukasz Brzeski and make his size/weight advantage count.
Prediction: Mick Parkin via unanimous decision.
Shauna Bannon vs. Alice Ardelean
Not odds have been released for this fight at this time of writing. Shauna Bannon boasts a decent reach advantage and she has UFC experience. Alice Ardlean already has five losses on the regional circuit (albeit one to Zhang Weili).
Prediction: Shauna Bannon via unanimous decision.
UFC 304 Prop Bets And Parlays
Here are a few intriguing highlights from the upcoming UFC 304 card scheduled for this Saturday.
Two fight parlay: Leon Edwards to defeat Belal Muhammad and Tom Aspinall to defeat Curtis Blaydes (-133)
I present to you the ‘It’s Coming Home’ parlay, featuring Edwards and Aspinall who possess exceptional speed compared to their opponents. In their previous fight, Edwards effortlessly delivered swift kicks that troubled Muhammad, while Blaydes has been frequently on the receiving end of strikes lately. These factors instill confidence in me that the Manchester fans will have ample reasons to cheer this Saturday night. For those seeking higher risk and reward, consider parlaying TKO finishes for these fighters, resulting in a favorable +528 outcome.
Paddy Pimblett Total Significant Strikes Landed – Under 67.5 (-115)
Pimblett’s striking numbers against Tony Ferguson are impressive, but they may not hold much significance. In his previous fights, he landed significantly fewer strikes, especially in shorter fights. If the fight goes the distance, Pimblett’s strategy might involve controlling Green on the ground instead of engaging in striking exchanges. This could be due to the fear of being displaced from a favorable position. Additionally, if Pimblett secures a quick submission or if Green secures a quick knockout, this bet would also pay off.
Molly McCann vs. Bruna Brasil – Fight to End in the 1st 60 seconds of Round 1 (+1400)
It’s disappointing that DraftKings doesn’t have the option to bet on Manel Kape losing a point. I noticed him grabbing the fence to prevent Mohammad Mokaev from taking him down for the tenth time. Moving on, I think McCann and Brasil will finish their fight in less than a minute. Brasil’s previous knockouts make me believe that McCann might be motivated to show off some flashy moves due to the enthusiastic local crowd.
UFC 304 Poll Time
Which of the earlier props and parlays catches your eye the most?
Poll
Which of these bets do you like the most?
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Two fight parlay: Leon Edwards to defeat Belal Muhammad and Tom Aspinall to defeat Curtis Blaydes (-133)
(0 votes)
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Paddy Pimblett Total Significant Strikes Landed – Under 67.5 (-115)
(0 votes)
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Molly McCann vs. Bruna Brasil – Fight to End in the 1st 60 seconds of Round 1 (+1400)
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0 votes total Vote Now
Please share your other preferences for this event in the comments section.
LIVE! Watch UFC 304 PPV On ESPN+ Here!
’McGREGOR-FREE MAIN EVENT! Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns to T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, on Sat., June 29, 2024, without its biggest box office draw, Conor McGregor, after the Irish sports star delayed the “greatest comeback of all-time” because he broke his pinky toe (seriously). Coming the rescue once again is Light Heavyweight champion, Alex Pereira, agreeing to rematch former division champion, Jiri Prochazka, in the pay-per-view (PPV) main event. In UFC 303’s co-headliner, top-ranked Featherweight contender, Brian Ortega, will attempt to halt the rise of red-hot surging 145-pound prospect, Diego Lopes. UFC 303’s PPV main card (see it here) will also feature Anthony Smith vs. Roman Dolidze and Ian Garry vs. Michael “Venom” Page and so much more. It’s must-watch action! UFC 303 start time scheduled for 6 p.m. ET (Prelims) and 10 p.m. ET (PPV).
Don’t miss a single second of EPIC face-punching action!
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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 304 fight card, starting with the “Prelims” play-by-play right here and followed by the “Main Card” play-by-play right here. The action begins on ESPN+ with the “Early Prelims” scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET. Those are followed by the “Late Prelims” at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN2/ESPN+ before the main card start time at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV).
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