UFC Denver: Best betting props, parlays and picks | Namajunas vs. Cortez

UFC Denver takes place this weekend (Sat., July 13, 2024) inside Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado. The high altitude venue will host former two-time women’s Strawweight champion, Rose Namajunas, taking on Tracy Cortez (who is coming in on short notice for Maycee Barber) in the main event. The co-main for this one is Santiago Ponzinibbio versus Muslim Salikhov. There’s also Drew Dober vs. Jean Silva (who fought two weeks ago).

The “Prelims” are headlined by Jasmine Jasudavicius vs. Fatima Kline. The early fights also include Joshua Van vs. Charles Johnson and Luana Santos vs. Mariya Agapova.

We should take a look at the moneylines for the “Namajunas vs. Cortez” fight and the other matches on the card.

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

UFC Denver Main Card Money Line Odds

Rose Namajunas (-180) vs. Tracy Cortez (+180)

The main focus of this card was Namajunas, a previous two-time Strawweight champion. Originally, the plan was for her to face Barber, a strong supporter of magical amulets. This could have been an amazing fight that could have provided answers to many questions in the Flyweight division. It would determine if Namajunas, at 32 years old, still possessed the skills and potential to challenge for the title, as well as if Barber, with her impressive six-fight win streak, was ready to move from being a mere contender to a serious challenger.

In addition to the two women from Colorado who are well-acquainted with Denver’s altitude of 5,280 ft., Namajunas residing in Arvada (5,525 ft.) and Barber fighting out of Greeley (4,675 ft.), the bout was supposed to include them. However, due to an injury to Barber, Cortez from Scottsdale, Arizona (2,165 ft.) has been brought in as a substitute.

While Scottsdale may not be on par with San Diego, it is worth considering that Cortez’s limited time to adjust to Denver’s altitude could significantly impact this fight, as well as others on this card. It is not to say that altitude is the sole determining factor in all these fights, but it would be unwise to disregard its influence. Denver has witnessed numerous fights where either or both fighters appeared to tire rapidly and lacked the ability to deliver an exhilarating performance or secure a decisive victory.

Namajunas comes into this fight after a five-round decision win over Amanda Ribas (check out the highlights here) in March. Namajunas won via unanimous decision, but she didn’t have it all her way with Ribas. Indeed, Ribas was able to land a lot of punches on Namajunas (83) and even score four takedowns. Namajunas enjoyed five times as much control time as Ribas did, though, thanks to her ability to get on top of Ribas and hold her down.

Cortez has a high motor and is relentless with both her striking and pressure takedown game. That has seen her rack up six UFC wins in a row (including her Contender Series win over Mariya Agapova (who features in the “Prelims”). Cortez joined UFC in 2019 after a split decision win over Erin Blanchfield in Invicta.

Although Cortez has a winning streak and outperforms Namajunas in several important statistics (such as significant strikes landed, striking accuracy, takedown average, and takedown defense), she is considered a slight underdog in this match. This perception may be influenced by the circumstances surrounding the fight, namely the short notice, the high altitude, and the fact that Cortez has never competed in a five-round bout before.

In order to choose Cortez as the winner, it is necessary to have faith in her ability to defeat Namajunas within the initial rounds. However, considering the factors we have previously addressed, particularly if she has to carry Namajunas for the majority of the fight, I personally do not believe she can maintain the pace throughout a five-round match.

Cortez’s only knockout win is from Combate in 2018 when she fought someone who was 1-0. The only time Namajunas has been knocked out was due to a slam (remember this?). Cortez’s only submission win was in 2018 against a woman who is currently 3-5 with three of her losses being by submission. Namajunas’ only submission loss was to Carla Esparza on the season finale of The Ultimate Fighter 20.

I doubt Cortez will be able to match the pace in this fight. While she might find some initial success, Namajunas is likely to overpower her and take control, ultimately securing a decision victory by pushing her into deep waters.

Pick: Rose Namajunas via unanimous decision

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Santiago Ponzinibbio (-205) vs. Muslim Salikhov (+170)

Again, I don’t think elevation is the only factor at play on this card. But, it’s an interesting variable we should consider. In that interest I’ll be sharing the elevation levels for each of the places these fighters are training in. Though, there’s no way to know exactly what kind of elevation training these guys have done leading up to this. In this match-up, Santiago Ponznibbio has the elevation disadvantage with training out of La Plata, Argentina (85 ft.). Muslim Salikhov fights out of Buynaksk, Dagestan (1,607 ft.). Both these guys might struggle up in Denver, though.

The co-main event doesn’t seem to be very exciting. Unfortunately, this lack of thrill has become the norm, even when the UFC moves the show away from the APEX.

Ponzinibbio is 2-4 in his last six and hasn’t looked the same since a bone and blood infection kept him out of action for three years and almost cost him his career (and life). During that run he starched Alex Morono (see it here) and took a decision over Miguel Baeza. Given those guys’ last appearances, that doesn’t feel that impressive. Ponzinibbio’s losses are respectable, though. He was badly beaten by Kevin Holland in April (see that KO here), but his other losses were split decisions to Michel Pereira and Geoff Neal. Prior to those he was KO’d by Li Jingliang, in his first bout since returning from that injury lay-off.

Salikhov is 3-3 in his last six and is coming off a knockout loss to Randy Brown in March (see it here). He was also stopped by Li Jingliang. His wins are over Andre Fialho, Francisco Trinaldo and Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos.

Salikhov, who is 40 years old, and the other individual have a total age of 77 years.

I anticipate this match-up to be quite challenging. In my opinion, Ponzinibbio holds the advantage due to his age and slight reach advantage. However, I believe it will be a tough and unimpressive battle for him. Salikhov may be able to land some punches, but I expect it to be at a slower pace compared to Ponzinibbio. Additionally, Salikhov may lack the necessary energy for a knockout blow.

Pick: Santiago Ponzinibbio via unanimous decision

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Drew Dober (-110) vs. Jean Silva (-110)

This should be fun. Drew Dober is a Denver boy so no worries about altitude for him. Jean Silva has been parachuted into the mountains after his stunning uppercut victory over Charles Jourdain at UFC 303. Silva is from Sao Paulo (2,493 ft.) and I doubt he’s had much time to acclimatize to Colorado in the past two weeks.

I would be more worried about Silva’s conditioning if he wasn’t built to finish fights quickly. The bookies clearly agree that the mountain air (or lack thereof) won’t hamper Silva too badly. He’s in a pick ‘em here with Dober, despite coming in on short notice (in place of Mike Davis).

This match has all the makings of being the ultimate “Fight of the Night.” With Dober’s proven ability to engage in thrilling brawls and Silva’s unique and exciting fighting style, we can expect a multitude of knockout moments inside the Octagon.

I do worry that Silva’s cruising and goofing might not work on someone who isn’t as tentative as Jourdain was at UFC 303. But if Silva is able to land punches on Dober, I do think they will leave a mark. Dober will take a hit to land one and I don’t think that’s a good idea against Silva. Silva has shown pure stopping power, albeit in a small sample size. Dober is famed for a tough chin, but that can only last so long (as evidenced by his TKO loss to Matt Frevola last year).

I’m trying not to let recency bias cloud my judgment, but I believe Silva will extend the Fighting Nerds’ winning streak by delivering a devastating counter shot that finishes an overly aggressive Dober.

Pick: Jean Silva via KO, round 1

Photo by Mike Roach/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Gabriel Bonfim (-340) vs. Ange Loosa (+270)

Gabriel Bonfim is the big favorite here. And I can see why. Bonfim was surprised last time out with a Nicolas Dalby knee to the face (see that TKO here), but he’s looked a terrifying prospect up until that point. Dalby is one of the toughest underdogs in the sport, so I don’t judge Bonfim too harshly for being stunned by the “Great Dane.” Prior to that loss he had all submissions in his UFC career, including a mounted guillotine over Mounir Lazzez (see it here).

Ange Loosa is yet to make any waves in UFC. He lost his Contender Series bout in 2021 (to Jack Della Maddalena, though) and needed to beat up John Howard (remember him?) in XMMA to earn his call-up back to UFC. In proper UFC action he’s lost to Mounir Lazzez via decision and taken decision wins over AJ Fletcher and Rhys McKee. Last time out he fought to a no contest with Bryan Battle due to an eye poke (see it here, along with the near brawl that followed).

Loosa, although known for his impressive volume striking, has yet to secure any stoppage wins in the UFC. It is worth mentioning that the only stoppages on his record come from his fights in the Swiss regional scene. Considering this, I doubt that his striking skills alone will be sufficient to deter Bonfim in their upcoming bout.

On paper, Loosa appears to have strong takedown defense with a rate of 90 percent. However, he has not encountered a skilled takedown artist throughout his career. I believe that Bonfim possesses the ability to successfully take Loosa down and employ his submission techniques with minimal obstacles.

Additionally, Bonfim is currently training in Brasilia at an altitude of 1,172 meters. On the other hand, Loosa practices his fighting skills at Kill Cliff MMA, located in Deerfield Beach, Florida, at an altitude of 3.96 meters.

Pick: Gabriel Bonfim via submission, round 1

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Julian Erosa (+170) vs. Christian Rodriguez (-205)

There’s no real advantage for either guy when it comes to elevation here. Julian Erosa’s Yakima, Wash., is 325 m above sea level. Christian Rodriguez’s Milwaukee, Wisc., is 188 m.

Rodriguez is on a nice run, having beaten Raul Rosas Jr. last year and followed that up with wins over Cameron Saaiman and Isaac Dulgarian. That run would look fantastic if he hadn’t missed weight for the Rosas and Saaiman fights (both at Bantamweight). This is his second bout at Featherweight so I don’t expect him to have any issues on the scales.

The veteran Erosa will be making his 15th walk to the Octagon on Saturday (not including a Contender Series appearance). He choked out Ricardo Ramos in March, after getting badly hurt (see it here). That followed (technical) knockout losses to Fernando Padilla (see that early stoppage here) and Alex Caceres. Those two losses make it seven (technical) knockout losses in Erosa’s career. The stoppages count for 64 percent of his professional losses, so we’re right to question Erosa’s chin and durability.

It is unlikely that Rodriguez will be able to land a significant strike on Erosa’s chin. Out of his eleven victories, only three have resulted in stoppages due to strikes. Despite lacking significant power, Rodriguez demonstrates composure and precision in his attacks. Additionally, he excels in defensive techniques. Consequently, Rodriguez is expected to connect with Erosa frequently while evading any powerful swings from his opponent.

While Erosa possesses great ground skills, Rodriguez is also proficient in that aspect. Although Rodriguez may not fear going to the ground with Erosa, it is unnecessary for him to do so in order to secure a victory. With his strong takedown defense, Erosa might encounter difficulties in bringing the fight to the ground if he finds himself in a compromising position while standing.

Pick: Christian Rodriguez via unanimous decision

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Abdul Razak Alhassan (-162) vs. Cody Brundage (+136)

Abdul Razak Alhassan stormed onto the scene all the way back in 2016 with a devastating knockout of Conor McGregor’s buddy, Charlie Ward. In the next few years he blew away Sabah Homasi and Niko Price, too.

Alhassan was forced into a hiatus for reasons (over which he was acquitted). And since he’s returned he’s not looked the same. He’s been a walking target for some heavy hitters in the division, being knocked out cold by Khaos Williams (see it here) and choked out by Joe Pyfer (see that here). He has scored some stoppages over Alessio Di Chirico (via this headkick) and Claudio Ribeiro. However, he turns 39 next month, so don’t expect any more upside to come from him.

Cody Brundage was served up to Bo Nickal in April. Prior to that he slammed out Zach Reese (see it here) and won via DQ against Jacob Malkoun. Stats wise Brundage isn’t far away from Razak Alhassan in the striking department. He lands far fewer sig. strikes (1.62 vs. 3.37), but he also absorbs less, too (2.3 vs. 3.99). However, it’ll be his takedowns that win him this fight.

With an average of 2.33 takedowns per 15 minutes and a 52 percent accuracy, Brundage appears to have a good chance of successfully taking down Razak Alhassan. Considering that Razak Alhassan has a takedown defense of 50 percent and was taken down five times out of eight attempts in his loss to Joaquin Buckley, it is evident that Brundage should not encounter much difficulty in taking Razak Alhassan down and maintaining control. Additionally, the 62 percent takedown success achieved by Razak Alhassan in that particular fight surpasses Buckley’s average of 44 percent.

Brundage, who resides in Colorado (specifically Englewood, Colo., situated 1,637 m above sea level), will face off against Razak Alhassan from Arlington, Texas (at an elevation of 184 m). Given that Razak Alhassan is nearing 40 years old, it is likely that he will struggle to bear the weight of Brundage throughout the fight. Consequently, Brundage may have the opportunity to dominate Razak Alhassan by mounting him and delivering powerful strikes until exhaustion renders his opponent unable to retaliate, resulting in a ground-and-pound technical knockout.

Pick: Cody Brundage via TKO, round 3

UFC Denver ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds

Photo by Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images

Jasmine Jasudavicius (+102) vs. Fatima Kline (-122)

Jasmine Jasudavicius was supposed to be fighting Viviane Araujo here. Fatima Kline comes in on less than a week’s notice. Both these women live and train close to sea level. Jasudavicius is in St. Catharaines, Ontario (98 m) and Fatima Kline hails from Hyde Park, N.Y. (76 m).

Kline is the favorite here despite coming in on short notice. The oddsmakers must think this fight will be a grappling match. Brazilian jiu-jitsu purple belt Kline is the superior grappler, both in the gym and in grappling competition. In MMA, she’s undefeated (6-0). Last time out she defeated Andressa Romero for the Cage Fury Fighting Strawweight belt.

Kline, who is 23 years old, has had a remarkable start to her career as a Strawweight fighter. However, in this upcoming Flyweight fight, she won’t have the advantage of size over her opponent. Jasudavicius happens to be slightly taller and has a longer reach compared to Kline.

Jasudavicius is 35, but I think this is one of those bouts where experience helps more than it hurts. Jasudavicius doesn’t have a ton of mileage on those 35-years, either. Jasudavicius has also fought on big events against some rather well known opponents (including one half of the main event here). And she’s coming off the best win of her career, a bloody d’arce choke on Priscila Chachoeira (see it here).

Kline’s arrival will be tardy, and she will be competing at a higher elevation against the most skilled MMA fighter she has ever encountered (by a significant margin). I believe this combination of factors will prove overwhelming for her, and Jasudavicius should have a relatively easy victory in this match.

Pick: Jasmine Jasudavicius via unanimous decision

Joshua Van (-205) vs. Charles Johnson (+180)

Joshua Van is 3-0 so far in his UFC career with wins over Zhalgas Zhumagulov, Kevin Borjas and Felipe Brunes (via TKO). It’s been a nightmare to get this guy booked since then. Since his win over Bunes he’s had the following fights fall through: Lucas Rocha, Sumudaerji, Tatsuro Taira, Tagir Ulanbekov. I think he’s a little fortunate that some of those didn’t happen, since a couple of those guys might have been too much too soon for him.

Charles Johnson is coming off an impressive win over Jake Hadley in May. That followed his decision win over Azat Maksum. Against Hadley, Johnson looked smooth and controlled and was able to stuff all of eleven takedowns to make sure he could keep piecing Hadley up from range.

Van is expected to be a more willing striker compared to Hadley. Additionally, he has proven himself against opponents with longer reach, such as Brunes whose reach is only slightly shorter than Johnson’s. Personally, I agree with the oddsmakers and believe that Van’s striking abilities, demonstrated by 60% of his 10 wins ending via knockout or technical knockout, will overpower Johnson.

There is no significant difference in altitude here. Van hails from Houston, TX, which is at an elevation of 15 meters, while Johnson is from St. Louis, Mo., which stands at 142 meters above sea level.

Pick: Joshua Van via TKO, round 2

Luana Santos (-395) vs. Mariya Agapova (+280)

Sao Paulo’s (760 m) Luana Santos has won her first two UFC bouts, TKO’ing Juliana Miller in last August and getting a decision over Stephanie Egger a few months later (while missing weight). She’s coming down to Flyweight to meet Mariya Agapova, who trains in Coconut Creek, FL (3.96 m).

Agapova’s claims to fame, include losing as one of the heaviest favorites in UFC history (see it here) and a number of off field distractions, some of which lead to a rather bitter rivalry and fight with Maryna Moroz. Agapova’s distraction filled UFC career has seen her go 2-3 over the past four years.

Her most recent appearance was a 2022 loss to Gillian Robertson (who looked excellent when she overwhelmed and battered Michelle Waterson-Gomez last weekend).

While Agapova showcased promising potential in Invicta with her relentless activity and fierce demeanor that proved overpowering for some opponents, she has struggled to replicate the same intimidation tactics in the UFC, resulting in a lack of victories.

Santos will likely rely on the takedown to achieve a win in this match, considering that Agapova’s defense (47 percent) indicates it could be a successful strategy. Without any knowledge of Agapova’s challenges outside the ring, I would consider her chances slim. However, considering the complete picture, I cannot rely on her being focused or able to fight at her best on Saturday.

Pick: Luana Santos via unanimous decision

Josh Fremd (-110) vs. Andre Petroski (-110)

Josh Fremd and Andre Petroski are both Pennsylvanians, with Fremd training out of Pittsburgh (373 m) and Petroski based in Springfield (74 m). Both are coming off TKO losses. Fremd was dropped with a liver shot by Roman Kopylov and Petroski was pounded out by Jacob Malkoun (see that here).

Fremd, a significantly larger Middleweight with a long reach, poses a potential challenge for Petroski, who has suffered three professional losses all by TKO. However, despite Petroski’s weak performance in striking, I believe that Fremd’s shortcomings in wrestling overshadow this aspect. With an abysmal 31 percent takedown defense, Fremd is vulnerable to Petroski’s impressive average of 4.32 takedowns per 15 minutes. If these statistics hold true, it is highly likely that the majority of this fight will take place on the ground.

Pick: Andre Petroski via unanimous decision

Montel Jackson (-162) vs. Da’Mon Blackshear (+136)

Two more guys from out of state here, Montel Jackson of Milwaukee, WI (188 m) and Da’Mon Blackshear who trains in Fayetteville, NC (68 m). Jackson TKO’d vet Rani Yahya in his last fight, over a year ago. That gives him a four fight winning streak, his longest streak since joining UFC in 2018.

Blackshear lost a unanimous decision to Mario Bautista in his last fight, which was almost a year ago. He’s 2-2-1 since joining the big show in 2022.

Jackson is clearly the more skilled fighter in this matchup. This is evident from his impressive 64 percent striking defense and his ability to absorb only 1.38 significant strikes per minute, which is the best in the Bantamweight division. Additionally, Jackson leads the division in takedown percentage with an impressive 68.8 percent. It’s worth noting that part of his success can be attributed to the fact that he has been favored in most of his previous fights. However, I believe that Jackson will be able to effectively dodge Blackshear’s attacks and secure the necessary takedowns to dominate this fight.

Pick: Montel Jackson via unanimous decision

Photo by Mike Roach/Zuffa LLC

UFC Denver Prop Bets & Parlays

Here are a few intriguing aspects to look forward to on this Saturday’s UFC Denver card …

Gabriel Bonfim Total Significant Strikes Landed – Under 45.4 (-115)

I predict that Bonfim will emerge victorious in this fight, but I believe he can achieve it without relying heavily on striking. Instead, I envision him taking Loosa down and swiftly submitting him early in the match. Once on the ground, Bonfim will prioritize seeking submission opportunities rather than focusing on ground and pound. However, it is worth noting that if Loosa manages to deliver a powerful blow and knock out Bonfim, similar to what Dalby did in their previous encounter, this bet could also be successful. Nonetheless, my intuition tells me that Bonfim’s strength will overpower Loosa, resulting in a submission victory in the first round.

Jean Silva to defeat Drew Dober via KO/TKO/DQ (+185)

Silva’s best chance of winning this fight lies in his striking abilities. His performance against Jourdain was exceptional, and it appears that the Fighting Nerds camp has something special going on. I strongly believe that Dober’s decision to engage in close-range punching exchanges will work against him, playing into Silva’s strengths. When that moment arrives, I have full confidence that Silva will deliver the decisive strike to conclude the fight.

Two fight parlay: Andre Petroski to defeat Josh Fremd and Christian Rodriguez to defeat Julian Erosa (+186)

I have strong confidence in two specific outcomes. Firstly, Fremd’s takedown defense is astonishing, but if he is the one expending the most energy in Denver, he will likely tire rapidly. Secondly, Rodriguez has numerous ways to secure a victory against Erosa, who only has a single path via submission. Rodriguez excels in standing combat, possesses solid wrestling skills, and will not be outmatched on the ground.

Luana Santos vs. Mariya Agapova – Point to be Deducted – Yes (+2000)

I was robbed by Jason Herzog at UFC Saudi Arabia a few weeks ago when a blatant fence grab from Shara Magomedov did not result in a point deduction. Well, I’m back to the well this week with another fighter who I think is primed to do something silly. Agapova has had a lot of distractions in her UFC career and she’s in desperate need of a win. That, plus the funky scenes we’ve seen in women’s MMA this year (headbutts, boob punches, etc.) and I think this is a fun dart to throw on Saturday.

UFC Denver Poll Time

Which of the earlier props and parlays catches your eye the most?

Do you have something even better than those? Don’t hold back! Share it with us in the comments.

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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Denver fight card right here, starting with the ESPN/ESPN+ “Prelims” matches, which are scheduled to begin at 7 p.m. ET, then the remaining main card balance on ESPN (simulcast on ESPN+) at 10 p.m. ET.

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