Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles: Prediction, Odds & Best Bets (7/11)

In Camden Yards today, the Baltimore Orioles will host the Chicago Cubs, who find themselves in contrasting situations. The Cubs began the MLB Season on a positive note, but have since struggled and currently occupy the last place in the NL Central, trailing the division-leading Brewers by 10 games. However, there is a glimmer of hope as they have recently won three consecutive games.

Despite losing two consecutive games to the Cubs, the Orioles still maintain a comfortable lead of 2 games over the Yankees in the AL East. They are determined to bounce back from their recent losses as they face the Cubs again today at home. However, their task might be challenging since Chicago’s talented left-handed pitcher, Justin Steele, who has the potential to secure a series sweep, will be on the mound.

Will he be able to guide the Cubs to an unexpected victory on the road? Or will Baltimore prevent a series sweep by securing a win at home tonight?

Justin Steele Starts for the Cubs Today in Camden Yards

Matchup Information – Cubs vs Orioles

• Venue and Location: Camden Yards, situated in Baltimore, Maryland.
• Date: Thursday, July 11th, 2024
• First Pitch: 6:35pm Eastern

Pitching Matchup

• Chicago Cubs: Justin Steele (1-3, 2.95 ERA)
• Baltimore Orioles: Albert Suarez (5-2, 2.48 ERA)

Betting Odds

Odds via BetOnline, an industry leader in the sports betting world.

Run Line

• Cubs +1.5 (-172)
• Orioles -1.5 (+152)

Money Line

• Cubs +124
• Orioles -135

Total

• Over 8.5 (-120)
• Under 8.5 (+100)

Can Orioles Avoid the Home Sweep?

Justin Steele vs Orioles Bats

After recovering from an injury, Justin Steele faced several challenging games at the beginning of the season. However, he has managed to regain his focus and improve his performance since then. Recently, he achieved his first win of the season by pitching all nine innings, conceding only one run on two hits and two walks. It’s worth noting that this victory took place on his home turf. On the contrary, in his last two away games, Steele has allowed five runs on 13 hits across 13.1 innings. He also gave up two home runs and one walk. Surprisingly, his statistics on the road are slightly better than his overall performance.

However, he continues to confront the Baltimore hitters, who have a strong affinity for left-handed pitchers.

Collectively, the Orioles have a batting average of .255 for the entire season. When playing at Camden Yards, their batting average is slightly higher at .257. However, when facing left-handed pitchers, their performance improves, as they have a solid batting average of .264, which is tied for the 5th position in the league. During the month of June, the Orioles had an impressive batting average of .273. However, in July, their performance has slightly declined, and their current batting average stands at .254. With the Yankees closely trailing them in the standings, this upcoming game against them is crucial for the Orioles to regain their form. In terms of individual performances, Adley Rutschman has notably seen a significant increase in his batting average against left-handed pitchers, jumping from .284 to an impressive .389. Similarly, Ryan Mountcastle’s average has risen from .272 to .313. Another player, Jordan Westburg, has experienced an improvement in his numbers at Camden Yards, with his batting average increasing from .280 to .325.

The main idea is that, in my opinion, the splits favor the Orioles. However, I would like to discuss their pitcher.

Albert Suarez vs Cubs Bats

Starting at home for the Orioles is Albert Suarez, who has been consistently impressive this season. With a record of 5-2, an ERA below 2.50, and a WHIP of 1.21, Suarez has proven himself to be a reliable asset. Furthermore, he has recently secured two consecutive victories. In his last two starts, spanning a total of 12 innings, Suarez has only allowed 2 runs on 7 hits and a single walk. Unfortunately, both runs were the result of solo home runs. However, it is worth noting that since transitioning from the bullpen, the Orioles have not suffered a loss in any game Suarez has started at Camden Yards. Based on this track record, I firmly believe that this streak will continue tonight.

Suarez has been exceptional at home this year, pitching 30 innings with a remarkable 1.50 ERA and maintaining an impressive 1.00 WHIP. On the other hand, the Cubs’ batting average remains stagnant at .231 in away games, with a slight decrease to .230 when facing right-handed pitchers. Despite the Cubs’ recent two straight wins, their mediocre 19-28 record on the road leads me to favor the home team.

The Orioles have suffered two consecutive defeats while playing away from home. However, the Orioles have managed to prevent a complete sweep by winning the final game of a home series three times before, and I believe they have the potential to repeat this tonight.

Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles Best Bets

Best Bet: Orioles ML (-132) BetOnline

In the AL East, the Orioles currently hold a two-game lead over the Yankees. Throughout this year, they have managed to avoid losing three consecutive games at home. On four occasions, they suffered back-to-back losses but quickly rebounded to secure a victory in the following game. This trend gives me confidence that they will replicate it tonight. Suarez, who is pitching for the Orioles, has displayed exceptional performance at home, making it impossible to overlook. Additionally, the Orioles have proven to excel against left-handed pitchers, making their matchup against tonight’s pitcher even more promising. Although there may not be extensive history between the hitters and pitchers, Baltimore’s .786 OPS against left-handed pitchers is convincing enough for me.

I have faith in the home team, despite their recent consecutive losses, to bounce back and put up some runs tonight.

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