MLB is notorious for juice, but finding value is not as difficult as it seems. There are plenty of good spots using hit parlays, RBIs, Runs and team scoring props. There are plenty of great spots on the board today to sprinkle. We’ll use trends and projections to find the best value bets on the board for tonight’s slate.
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MLB Picks
MLB Odds
Logan Gilbert Over 18.5 Outs (+128)
Let’s all agree to fade the White Sox. It’s no surprise that the Chicago White Sox are struggling. However, Logan Gilbert stands out as an exceptional pitcher. Today’s slate offers one of the most promising pitcher props, with Gilbert expected to shut down the White Sox for over 6 innings. This should not be considered a long shot. According to Betalytics, there is a 52% probability of winning. The odds should be around -110, indicating a significant value of nearly 40 points.
The Whitesox have only one batter with favourable statistics against Gilbert in Gavin Sheets. The sample size isn’t big, but only one of the Whitesox batters has a good profile to combat Gilbert’s pitching arsenal (Luis Robert). The rest of the Whitesox batters have average or below average profiles against Gilbert. There is nothing to indicate that the Whitesox are capable of getting to Gilbert and with nearly 40 cents of value, this is a great spot.
Seth Lugo Over 2.5 Earned Runs (-135)
Seth Lugo has been performing exceptionally well lately, but tonight may be the night his luck runs out. Although his ERA stands at an impressive 2.13, his xERA tells a different story, suggesting a higher potential for regression at 3.79. This is concerning, considering the formidable lineup of the Yankees, featuring power hitters like Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Juan Soto. With such a strong offense from top to bottom, Lugo may face challenges from various hitters in their batting order. Despite these factors, there is still value in betting on this game. Lugo is projected to give up around 3.42 earned runs today, with a 63% chance of winning. Based on this probability, the line should be closer to -170, providing a 35-point advantage. But wait, there’s more…
When Lugo faces difficulties, the situation can quickly deteriorate. There is another player who is highly regarded as the most valuable in the competition. It is astonishing that the line for under 17.5 outs at +140 is offered. According to the model, this line is expected to have a 60% chance of winning, suggesting it should be closer to -150. With a 90-point value advantage at +140, this is an incredibly advantageous opportunity. The reason behind this is that the Royals have heavily relied on their bullpen in their recent games against Seattle. The bullpen desperately needs a rest, but if Lugo performs poorly, the Royals may have no other option. Considering that Lugo is likely to experience a decline in performance, both of these situations present favorable circumstances.
Aaron Judge Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-105)
We have numerous reasons to fade Seth Lugo, and one of those reasons is Aaron Judge. Despite a slow start to the season, Judge has been performing exceptionally well lately. Tonight, it is predicted that he will surpass this particular line. There are various ways to approach this situation, and there is a strong chance that he will achieve this with a home run. Judge is projected to score 1.09 runs, earn 1.1 RBIs, and get 1.25 hits. Betting on him to score at least 1 run or earn at least 1 RBI could also be lucrative options, as they have favorable odds.
It can be argued that Judge is the best hitter in baseball, while Lugo is expected to decline. Judge’s exceptional ability to hit the ball hard and consistently get on base opens up numerous possibilities for this bet to be successful, not just relying on home runs. In fact, Judge has achieved this level of performance in 9 out of his last 10 games, scoring runs in 9 of those games and recording RBIs in 8 of them. If the Yankees want to overcome Lugo, Aaron Judge is expected to have a significant impact.
Henderson & Rutschman 1+ Hit (+105)
My favorite play of the day is the combination of both Henderson and Rutschman consistently hitting in their recent games. In the last 10 games, they have both recorded hits in 9 of them. Additionally, this parlay has been successful in 8 out of 10 occasions. Considering an 80% success rate, it is surprising that the odds are not higher. Rutschman has an 80% chance of getting at least 1 hit, while Henderson has a 72% chance. If we remove the 80% success rate of the parlay and combine these lines, the odds should be -136. This offers a significant value of 39 points, considering the reliability of these two consistent hitters in the MLB. I have been regularly taking this play and will continue to do so.
Neither of these players have faced Ryan Pepiot yet, but considering his impressive pitching arsenal, they both have highly favorable matchups. Both players have a Hard Hit% exceeding 43% and an expected slugging percentage higher than .480. They consistently make solid contact against Pepiot’s pitches and should have no trouble getting on base in tonight’s game.
