We should maximize the opportunities available today. Here are a few exceptional moves to begin your day with energy.
Top MLB Prop Bets for Saturday’s Slate
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Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio
Yesterday’s write-up resulted in a 2-0 sweep, while the overall card finished with a record of 3-4, resulting in a gain of 0.66 Units.
Team Total: Mets F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (-110)
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Pete Alonso, the star of the New York Mets, rejoices as he hits a home run.
The Stank:
Yesterday, I placed a bet on the Mets F5 team total, but unfortunately, they came up short by a run. However, today brings a fresh start, and the Marlins have graciously provided us with yet another average starting pitcher.
I plan on incorporating this strategy more often: when teams accumulate the majority of their runs in the 5th inning without surpassing their overall team total.
The “just an inning off” theory
We will be testing this out for the remainder of the season. pic.twitter.com/omyM0QX2WY
— Colby Marchio (@C_Marchio2) July 20, 2024
Roddery Munoz comes into today with the lowest pitcher rating on Batters-Box.com. The 24-year-old has a 5.47 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP this season. In five of his ten starts, he has allowed team to go over 2.5 runs. This will be his second start against New York this season. In their first encounter, Munoz pitched six innings, giving up only one hit and no runs. Seems like a revenge opportunity for the Mets.
Today, New York proudly holds the highest average hitter matchup rating on Batters-Box.com, earning an impressive Elite grade. Their lineup consists of five exceptional hitters, with the current season ratings revealing six players in this category. Astonishingly, they have no poor performers among their ranks and only one hitter surpassing the league’s strikeout rate.
Despite their challenging season, the Mets have managed to secure a spot in the top ten for first five scoring, maintaining an average of 2.67 runs per game. Interestingly, their performance on the road is even stronger, with an average of nearly three runs per game. Fortunately for us, the Marlins have a tendency to concede more runs at home. In fact, they have the highest number of runs allowed in the league, giving up an average of 3.20 runs to opponents in the first five innings.
All signs indicate that the Mets will have a prosperous start in the first five innings. Let’s go!
Team Total: Giants F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (-125)
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The Stank:
I have improved and made your text more captivating:
Sitting just behind Munoz in the pitcher rankings is Kyle Freeland, the starting pitcher for the Rockies, who currently holds the second-lowest spot. Additionally, Freeland has the third-highest rate of hard contact by opposing hitters, standing at 43.33%, and ranks second-worst in terms of average hitter wOBA. This season, Freeland has struggled with a disappointing 6.00 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP, making it a tempting prospect for opponents.
Nevertheless, even though he has managed to keep his opponents to 2.5 runs or less in his previous four starts, I expect some decline in his performance today. The left-hander has struggled against the Giants, who have had remarkable success against him with a batting average of .330 and an OPS of .906 in 91 plate appearances. Only three batters have faced him more than ten times. Let’s hope the Giants can maintain their successful track record against him today.
Today, San Francisco enters the game with the third-highest average hitter rating among all teams. Their lineup includes four exceptional hitters and no subpar ones, with only a single player striking out more than the league average. Despite not being the top-scoring team in the first five games, the dynamic environment of Coors Field can potentially alter their performance entirely.
I believe that the Giants will be aggressive in their approach today in Colorado, as Freeland is expected to experience a decline in performance.
Sprinkle of the Day: Shohei Ohtani Home Run (+270)
- He hits a home run 25% of the time this season when playing at an elite level.
- Over the past three seasons, elite players have hit home runs approximately 31.37% of the time.
- The Day After Theory: I had a favorable opinion of him yesterday, despite his rough start in the game. He managed to turn it around and ended up with a double.
Where to find more advanced analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
In addition, I rely on FanGraphs, Statmuse, and ESPN to access various statistics that assist me in determining whether a player is deserving of my attention or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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