MLB Must Bet Props: Team Totals & Home Runs | June 24, 2024

Happy Monday, you sick degenerates!

Tonight’s schedule is packed with exciting events: Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final and 12 MLB games. Just to clarify, I am fully aware that tonight’s game is the decisive game 7. Rest assured, I have made sure to mark that on my calendar too.

You can be confident that I have exactly what you need to fulfill your baseball desires. Below are the plays happening on the diamond today.

Top MLB Prop Bets for Monday’s Slate

Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.

Write Up Transparency

Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio

Another solid weekend going up +15.0 units.

Let’s keep this energy going!

Team Total: Mariners First Five Innings Team Total Over 1.5 (-135)

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The Stank:

Returning to my primary focus, the initial cumulative scores of the top five teams.

Today presents a remarkable chance to take advantage of a highly unfavorable pitcher matchup. The Tampa Bay Rays’ starting pitcher, Taj Bradley, enters the game with the second-lowest pitcher rating, as per Batters-Box.com. Consequently, we can be confident in the Seattle Mariners, who possess the highest average hitter matchup rating today. Notably, they have an incredible six elite hitters based on default ratings and five in the current season.

Out of Bradley’s eight starts this season, he has given up a total of two runs in five of them. Notably, he allowed runs in consecutive games against the Twins and Cubs, who are not known for their strong early scoring abilities.

Despite being at the bottom in first-five scoring, Seattle has recently shown great improvement, averaging 3.67 points in their last three games.

If the average rating of all players in a line-up is classified as “Elite,” it is advisable to stick with it and continue on.

The Mariners are expected to score at least 2 runs in the first five innings.

Side: Royals F5 Alt Spread (-1.5) (+100)

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The Stank:

Let’s keep this straightforward. No need to overanalyze or spend time on the entire game spread. The Royals are playing at home against the Marlins. Kansas City performs better on their home turf, and considering the Marlins’ struggling starter, Roddery Munoz, they should take advantage of his errors.

Munoz has the fourth-worst pitcher rating today on Batters-Box.com, taking on the third-highest average hitter matchup rating. Three of the top six players on Batters-Box.com are Royals hitters. The Royals offense consumes the top ten hitters in this matchup, having eight, while the Marlins have only two.

In the Marlins vs Royals matchup page on Batters-Box.com, the screenshot reveals that Cole Ragans will be pitching for Kansas City. He currently holds the highest pitcher rating for the day. Ragans will be up against a roster that consists of seven hitters who have strikeout and ground ball rates above the league average. This season, Ragans has an impressive 3.13 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP. He has played a significant role in the success of the Royals this year.

If you have reservations about the Royals needing to win by a two-point margin by the conclusion of the fifth inning, consider taking the -0.5 and accepting the associated costs. Personally, I have a strong preference for both options. I simply desired a higher payout, and I have confidence in the Royals’ ability to consistently challenge Munoz from the start. Munoz currently has an ERA of 5.76 and a WHIP of 1.35, with the fourth-highest hard contact percentage allowed for the day.

Royals by 2!

Sprinkle of the Day: David Fry Home Run (+650)

The Stank:

The Day After Theory

You may find yourself wondering, “so, what exactly is that?”

If you have a favorite player who fails to hit a home run on a particular day, don’t hesitate to bet on them the following day. This strategy has proven successful for me twice within the last week. For instance, Josh Naylor didn’t hit a home run on his birthday, which also happened to be his bobble head night. However, he hit a home run in the next game. Similarly, Daniel Scheeman disappointed me on Thursday by going 0-3 and not playing on Friday night, but he redeemed himself by hitting a home run on Saturday.

Sports don’t make sense, but neither does this statement. Have faith in yourself.

Where to find more advanced analytics

When it comes to finding the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers, Batters-Box.com is my top choice. While it may not provide all the answers, it serves as an excellent starting point for my daily baseball bets. Using Batters-Box.com last season, I managed to gain an impressive 98 units. Still skeptical? Feel free to verify my success on my Action profile @cmarchio.

In addition, I utilize FanGraphs, Statmuse, and ESPN to gather additional statistics that aid me in determining whether a player is worth investing my time in or not.

Good luck this season you psychos!

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