Fresh week. Fresh chances to manipulate the records.
Wishing you all a joyful Monday! Allow me to share a couple of impressive highlights from the diamond that caught my attention.
Wishing you an amazing week ahead! Let’s dominate!
Top MLB Prop Bets for Wednesday’s Slate
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Unfortunately, last week did not turn out as we had hoped. I made the mistake of becoming too ambitious and placed a couple of two unit plays that did not yield the desired results. In total, my record for last week was 15-22-1, resulting in a loss of 9.2 units.
Team Total: Phillies F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (-130)
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The Stank:
Philadelphia, the city known for Brotherly love. It’s a place that I am seriously considering calling home, especially after developing such a strong affection for the Phillies and their impressive five-team total. Although I never thought I would say this, I might even contemplate throwing batteries at Santa now.
The Phillies have consistently outperformed other teams in terms of scoring in the first five innings, averaging 3.11 runs per game. When playing at their home stadium, they have been even better, scoring an average of 3.33 runs. Considering this impressive track record, the current odds of -130 seem to be a misprice. Additionally, the Padres’ starting pitcher, Randy Vasquez, has had a terrible season so far, with a 4.93 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP. He has allowed more than 2.5 runs in six out of his eight starts this season.
Vasquez, who has the second-lowest pitcher rating on Batters-Box.com, is facing a team with the highest average hitter matchup rating. The Phillies have three exceptional hitters in Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and David Dahl. Additionally, they only have two hitters who surpass the league’s strikeout rate. Considering all the advanced statistics, it is evident that the Phillies have a great chance of having a successful game. Therefore, it is an obvious decision to support them in expecting a high number of quick and frequent scores.
Player Prop Bet: Paul Skenes Alt 10+ Strikeouts (+210)
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The Stank:
The one and only Paul Skenes is back on the bump today for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Today, he is taking on the Reds, one of the most strikeout-heavy teams in baseball. They have the sixth-highest strikeout percentage, averaging 9.04 strikeouts per game. They are a hair worse on the road, striking out 9.50 times per game. In both the default (last three seasons) and current season ratings on Batters-Box.com, the Reds have nine hitters above the league strikeout rate. In the current season ratings, the Reds have two poorly rated hitters.
Paul Skenes plays baseball today. #LetsGoBucs pic.twitter.com/swdPq2SXfI
— SkenesMuse (@PaulSkenesMuse) June 17, 2024
Skenes has been outstanding since getting called to the bigs a month ago, averaging 12.42 K through 9. He has only gone over 9.5 strikeouts once against the Cubs in his second start. The Cubs have struggled with striking out this season, but the Reds are still much worse.
This is not a suggestion to avoid his original prop. Take the safer play at 8.5 and sprinkle on this alternative line. With Skenes’s exceptional performance and the Reds’ underwhelming performance this season, the potential for ten-plus strikeouts holds great value and promises an exhilarating experience.
Where to find more advanced analytics
When it comes to finding the top matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers, Batters-Box.com is my ultimate choice. Although it may not provide all the answers, it serves as an excellent starting point for my daily baseball bets. Thanks to Batters-Box.com, I managed to increase my units by 98 last season. If you doubt my claim, feel free to verify it on my Action profile @cmarchio.
In addition to FanGraphs, Statmuse, and ESPN, I utilize these platforms to gather additional statistics that aid me in determining a player’s value and whether they are worth my attention.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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