Phillies vs Braves MLB Predictions, Odds, Total & Best Bets (7/5)

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On Friday night, the NL East rivals, the Philadelphia Phillies (57-30), are set to kick off a three-game series against the Atlanta Braves (47-38) at Truist Park.

After experiencing defeat on Independence Day, both teams are in need of a victory. The Phillies are determined to bounce back after suffering a crushing 10-2 loss against the Chicago Cubs, while the Braves find themselves on the losing end of a 4-2 encounter with the San Francisco Giants.

Can Philadelphia bounce back and regain their momentum? Alternatively, will Atlanta make significant progress in closing the divisional gap?

As we delve into predictions and picks, let’s explore the plethora of solid MLB betting options available for tonight’s Phillies vs. Braves matchup.

2024 MLB Betting Picks Record: 42-52-1 (44.7%)

MLB Betting Today: Phillies vs Braves (7/5)

Phillies vs Braves Game Information

Matchup: Philadelphia Phillies (57-30, 24-16 Away) vs. Atlanta Braves (47-38, 27-16 Home)
Venue & Location: Truist Park (Atlanta, GA)
Date: Friday, July 5, 2024
Game Time: 7:20 p.m. ET
How to Watch Phillies vs. Braves: MLB.TV, Fubo, Apple TV+

Phillies vs Braves MLB Probable Pitchers

Phillies: Aaron Nola (17 starts — 9-4, 3.43 ERA)
Braves: Max Fried (16 starts — 7-3, 2.91 ERA)

Braves vs Phillies MLB Odds & Spread

Braves vs. Phillies MLB odds are courtesy of BetOnline as of Friday, July 5 at 10:27 a.m. ET. Odds from other top online sportsbooks may also be mentioned in this article.

Phillies vs Braves Run Line

Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 (-177)
Atlanta Braves -1.5 (+157)

Braves vs Phillies Over/Under

Over 7.5 Runs (-115)
Under 7.5 Runs (-105)

Phillies vs Braves Moneyline

Philadelphia Phillies (+125)
Atlanta Braves (-136)

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Phillies vs Braves MLB Betting Trends

In its most recent 20 games against the NL East, Philadelphia has a straight up record of 14 wins and 6 losses.
In their previous 15 games against the NL, Atlanta has a record of 5 wins and 10 losses.
In eight out of Philadelphia’s last 11 road games, the total surpassed the Over.
Atlanta has gone under the total in seven out of their last eight games.
In five out of the last six meetings between Philadelphia and Atlanta, the combined score exceeded the over/under line.

Phillies vs Braves Predictions & MLB Picks Today (7/5)

Tonight’s clash marks the initial encounter between the Phillies and Braves since they kicked off the 2024 season against one another. Atlanta had the final say, triumphing in two out of three contests and outscoring Philadelphia 25-12 in the process.

However, it is important to note that the mentioned series occurred almost four months ago and there have been significant developments since then. The Phillies have emerged as one of the leading teams in MLB and currently enjoy a comfortable nine-game advantage over the Braves in the NL East competition. Additionally, Philadelphia has achieved an impressive 14-8 SU (63.6%) record against teams in their division, while Atlanta stands at 12-11 SU (52.2%) in matches against their rivals.

Despite Philadelphia’s recent loss, Rob Thomson’s team has proven their ability to bounce back. Since June 17, the Phillies have only experienced consecutive losses once, and have a solid record of 9-4 SU in their last 13 games. Prior to their defeat against the Cubs, they were even on a three-game winning streak.

On the other hand, the Braves’ performance has been inconsistent. Despite being considered one of the top teams in the NL, they have encountered a 3-5 SU slump in their last eight games, causing worry among many.

The Braves have struggled to string together consecutive wins over the last few weeks.

In search of his 10th win this year, right-handed ace Aaron Nola will be taking the mound for the Phillies. Throughout his nine-year career, Nola has faced the Braves an impressive 34 times, resulting in a 15-11 record and a 3.58 ERA. However, it is worth mentioning that he has only emerged victorious against them once in their last five encounters.

In the meantime, Max Fried aims to maintain his impressive performance when facing the Phillies. The left-handed pitcher for the Braves has been exceptional, surrendering two or fewer runs in six out of his last seven games. During this span, he has achieved a 4-1 record with an outstanding 1.94 ERA. Additionally, his opponents have struggled to find success against him, with a slash line of .216/.263/.270.

However, the Phillies have a record of 21-15 when facing left-handed pitchers this season. Additionally, they are leading in hits, home runs, and walks against left-handed pitchers.

Can the Phillies batters — like Nick Castellanos — solve Braves LHP Max Fried tonight?

In an NL East showdown that could go either way, I’m taking the Phillies to pull off the upset. The Braves are good, but the Phillies are playing well against left-handed pitchers and picked up a win when these rivals last met. Considering Nola’s all-time success against Atlanta, Philadelphia has what it takes to win.

But regardless of who wins, the Over on the 7.5-run total is the way to go. Not only is the Over 8-3 in the Phillies’ last 11 road games, but each of their last four outings finished with eight or more total runs. Additionally, Atlanta’s last six tilts against Philadelphia saw the Over hit five times as the rivals combined for 10.3 runs per contest.

Since the first three Phillies-Braves games of the year ended with the Over, it is likely that we will witness a high-scoring game tonight.

Phillies vs. Braves MLB Prediction: PHI wins

Best Phillies vs. Braves Bet: o7.5 Total Runs (-115)

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Best Phillies vs Braves MLB Player Prop (7/5)

When it comes to my Phillies vs. Braves MLB player prop pick, I have my eye on Nick Castellanos o0.5 runs + RBIs (-102).

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Since the middle of June, Castellanos has been excelling in his baseball performance. Over the course of his last 15 games, the former two-time MLB All-Star has achieved an impressive slash line of .368/.422/.597, along with accumulating six runs and 13 RBIs. Notably, he has surpassed the predicted outcome in eight of those games, with three of the last four games resulting in successes after hitting his 12th home run of the year yesterday.

Still not convinced? No worries, as an added bonus, the Over has also prevailed in five out of the last six games when he played against the Braves. Castellanos has an impressive track record with four hits and a home run in only eight at-bats against Max Fried. This puts him in an advantageous position to succeed and meet expectations tonight.

Phillies vs Braves MLB Predictions, Odds & Best Bets (7/5)