UFC 302: Islam Makhachev vs Dustin Poirier Fight Prediction, Odds & Best Bets

This Makhachev vs. Poirier prediction for UFC 302 is brought to you by BetOnline. BetOnline is a market leader in sports betting, offering various options from UFC odds to wrestling and everything in between.

Another exciting weekend of MMA action is upon us as UFC 302 goes down on Saturday, June 1. The action-packed card features several big-time bouts, including when Islam Makhachev puts the UFC Lightweight title on the line against former interim titleholder Dustin Poirier in the main event.

He's looking to add undisputed world champion to his resume this weekend @DustinPoirier is on the hunt for the lightweight title in the #UFC302 main event! pic.twitter.com/aArWhcyiIE

— UFC (@ufc) May 29, 2024

The upcoming headline fight promises to be an epic showdown between two determined fighters. Makhachev, unbeaten for almost ten years, is eager to maintain his flawless record. Meanwhile, experienced veteran Poirier aims to demonstrate that he still possesses the skills that have earned him the prestigious No. 4 lightweight rank in the UFC.

Saturday’s main event is also littered with UFC betting opportunities and Betting News is here to help you get the most out of them.

Continue reading to find my preview of UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier. Inside, you’ll find the latest odds, along with my predictions and betting picks for the upcoming weekend.

UFC 302: Makhachev vs Poirier Betting Odds

UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier odds are courtesy of BetOnline as of Wednesday, May 29 at 11:23 a.m. ET.

Makhachev vs Poirier Moneyline

• Islam Makhachev (-700)
• Dustin Poirier (+500)

WillMakhachev vs Poirier Go the Distance?

• Yes (+375)
• No (-550)

Makhachev vs Poirier Round Total

• Over 2.5 Rounds (+145)
• Under 2.5 Rounds (-175)

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Makhachev vs Poirier Tale of the Tape

Islam Makhachev (c) — Dustin Poirier

• Record: 25-1 — 30-8, 1 NC
• Height: 5’10” — 5’9”
• Reach: 70” — 72”
• Weight: 155 lbs — 155 lbs
• Age: 32 — 35
• Fighting Stance: Southpaw — Southpaw
• Knockouts: 5 — 15

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UFC 302: Makhachev vs Poirier Fight Preview

As UFC 302 nears, oddsmakers are firmly on one fighter’s side when it comes to the main event. BetOnline is heavily favoring Islam Makhachev at -700 odds over Dustin Poirier, which carries an implied win probability of 87.5%.

That being said, it’s not surprising to see Makhachev as the clear favorite, given that he has not suffered a loss since UFC 192. The 32-year-old Russian fighter has gone on to win his last 13 matches, with eight of those victories coming by knockout or submission, and the remaining five by unanimous decision.

Makhachev achieved his most significant triumph by submitting Charles Oliveira to claim the vacant lightweight title at UFC 280. Since then, he has showcased his dominance by successfully defending his title in consecutive bouts. At UFC 284, he defeated Alexander Volkanovski by unanimous decision, and later at UFC 294, he secured a first-round knockout victory.

Regarding Poirier, he has been mostly successful in his recent fights, winning five out of his last seven. However, it is worth noting that he has suffered two losses within his last four fights. In 2021, he was unable to secure victory against Oliveira for the UFC Lightweight title, losing by submission. Additionally, he was knocked out by Justin Gaethje in July when competing for the BMF title.

However, Poirier is carrying some momentum in his favor. Hailing from Lafayette, LA, he secured a knockout win over Benoit Saint-Denis in the second round last March, impressively earning the title of ‘fight of the night’. Only time will reveal if he can achieve back-to-back victories, a feat he hasn’t accomplished in more than three years.

In terms of statistics, Makhachev holds the upper hand in all aspects. Although Poirier may deliver more impactful strikes, Makhachev excels in accuracy (60% compared to 51%) and defensive skills (61% versus 53%). Furthermore, the champion absorbs three fewer significant strikes per minute compared to his challenger.

Makhachev demonstrates an average of 3.17 takedowns per 15 minutes on the mat, achieving an impressive 60% accuracy while also boasting a solid 90% defense rate. In contrast, Poirier’s statistics reveal an average of 1.33 takedowns with a 36% accuracy and a 63% defense rate.

It is important to mention that Makhachev has an impressive 93.3% success rate as the favored fighter in the UFC, while Poirier has a 71.4% success rate as the underdog.

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UFC 302: Makhachev vs Poirier Prop Bets & Betting Trends

Although the moneyline indicates the favored fighter to win a specific bout, it does not provide insight into how the fight will play out. Luckily, BetOnline’s UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier prop markets offer some clarity on the upcoming main event this weekend.

BetOnline is strongly predicting that the fight will not last till the end (-550). This comes as no surprise, considering that Makhachev has had finishes in six of his last seven fights, and Poirier’s last six fights have all failed to go the distance.

Makhachev is expected to win by submission with -125 odds, which is not surprising given his track record of 11 submission victories, four of which occurred in his last seven fights. In comparison, Poirier has been submitted three times in his career.

On the other hand, Poirier’s best chance of causing an upset lies in securing a victory through KO/TKO (+625). While he boasts an impressive record of 15 career KO/TKO wins, he has only achieved one in his last four fights. In contrast, Makhachev has never experienced a knockout defeat so far.

If the champion manages to execute the finish, it is highly probable that he will submit Poirier in the first round (+325). Out of the 11 submission victories the 32-year-old has achieved, five of them took place in the initial frame.

Typically, Makhachev has -310 odds to emerge victorious in the fight, regardless of the distance.

UFC 302: Makhachev vs Poirier Prediction & Best Bet

While upsets happen all the time, I’m firmly backing Makhachev to win. The UFC Lightweight Champion is on another level and isn’t showing any signs of slowing down as he mows through the competition. Meanwhile, Poirier is no longer in his prime and has been fighting inconsistently lately, so I just don’t see an upset happening.

I’m also taking Makhachev to win via submission (-125). He’s the superior grappler in this fight and has been finishing opponents left and right. Considering how Poirier has been submitted twice in the last five years, I won’t be shocked if the champ snaps or taps out the challenger.

Makhachev vs Poirier Prediction: Islam Makhachev wins

Makhachev vs Poirier Best Bet: Makhachev via Submission (-125)

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UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier Information & FAQ

When is UFC 302?

• Mark your calendars for UFC 302, scheduled to occur on Saturday, June 1, 2024.

Where is UFC 302?

• The live broadcast of UFC 302 takes place at the Prudential Center in Newark, NJ.

What time does UFC 302 start?

• UFC 302 Early Prelims Start Time: 6:15 p.m. ET
• UFC 302 Preliminary Card Start Time: 8 p.m. ET
• UFC 302 Main Card Start Time: 10 p.m. ET

How to Watch UFC 302

• UFC 302 Early Prelims Channel: ESPN+
• UFC 302 Preliminary Card Channel: ESPN+, ESPN2
• UFC 302 Main Card Channel: ESPN+, PPV

How to Bet on UFC 302

• All of the top online sports betting sites will have UFC 302 odds, but here are some of the sites we recommend most for UFC betting enthusiasts.